While the role of expanding agriculture in deforestation and the loss of other natural ecosystems is well known, the specific drivers in the context of small- and large-scale agriculture remain poorly understood. In this study, we employed satellite data and a deep learning algorithm to map the agricultural landscape of Central Africa (Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon) into large- (including for plantations and intensively cultivated areas) and small-scale tree crops and non-tree crop cover. This permits the assessment of forest loss between the years 2000 and 2022 as a result of small- and large-scale agriculture. Thematic [user’s] accuracy ranged between 91.2 ± 2.5 percent (large-scale oil palm) and 17.8 ± 3.9 percent (large-scale non-tree crops). Small-scale tree crops achieved relatively low accuracy (63.5 ± 5.9 percent), highlighting the difficulties of reliably mapping crop types at a regional scale. In general, we observed that small-scale agriculture is fifteen times the size of large-scale agriculture, as area estimates of small-scale non-tree crops and small-scale tree crops ranged between 164,823 ± 4224 km2 and 293,249 ± 12,695 km2, respectively. Large-scale non-tree crops and large-scale tree crops ranged between 20,153 ± 1195 km2 and 7436 ± 280 km2, respectively. Small-scale cropping activities represent 12 percent of the total land cover and have led to dramatic encroachment into tropical moist forests in the past two decades in all six countries. We summarized key recommendations to help the forest conservation effort of existing policy frameworks.
Tag: deforestation
Ethiopian National Agroforestry Development Strategy (2026–2035)
Ethiopia faces severe land degradation, threatening food security, livelihoods, and economic stability. In response, the National Agroforestry Strategy (2026–2035) outlines a comprehensive framework to mainstream agroforestry as a core land-use system across all regions. By integrating food, feed, fiber, and renewable energy production with ecological functions, the strategy aims to restore landscapes, enhance resilience to climate change, and generate sustainable income. Built on a value chain approach and aligned with research, education, and traditional practices, it provides clear goals and interventions to strengthen governance, reduce poverty, and build a climate-resilient green economy.
Mapping the diversity of land uses following deforestation across Africa
African forest are increasingly in decline as a result of land-use conversion due to human activities. However, a consistent and detailed characterization and mapping of land-use change that results in forest loss is not available at the spatial-temporal resolution and thematic levels suitable for decision-making at the local and regional scales; so far they have only been provided on coarser scales and restricted to humid forests. Here we present the first high-resolution (5 m) and continental-scale mapping of land use following deforestation in Africa, which covers an estimated 13.85% of the global forest area, including humid and dry forests. We use reference data for 15 different land-use types from 30 countries and implement an active learning framework to train a deep learning model for predicting land-use following deforestation with an F1-score of 84 ± 0.7 for the whole of Africa. Our results show that the causes of forest loss vary by region. In general, small-scale cropland is the dominant driver of forest loss in Africa, with hotspots in Madagascar and DRC. In addition, commodity crops such as cacao, oil palm, and rubber are the dominant drivers of forest loss in the humid forests of western and central Africa, forming an “arc of commodity crops” in that region. At the same time, the hotspots for cashew are found to increasingly dominate in the dry forests of both western and south-eastern Africa, while larger hotspots for large-scale croplands were found in Nigeria and Zambia. The increased expansion of cacao, cashew, oil palm, rubber, and large-scale croplands observed in humid and dry forests of western and south-eastern Africa suggests they are vulnerable to future land-use changes by commodity crops, thus creating challenges for achieving the zero deforestation supply chains, support REDD+ initiatives, and towards sustainable development goals.
Pantropical CO2 emissions and removals for the AFOLU sector in the period 1990-2018
Transparent, accurate, comparable, and complete estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and removals are needed to support mitigation goals and performance assessments under the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a comparative analysis of the agriculture forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emission estimates from different datasets, including National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs), FAOSTAT, the BLUE, OSCAR, and Houghton (here after updated H&N2017) bookkeeping models; Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR); and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We disaggregate the fluxes for the forestry and other land use (FOLU) sector into forest land, deforestation, and other land uses (including non-forest land uses), while agricultural emissions are disaggregated according to the sources (i.e., livestock, croplands, rice cultivation, and agricultural fires). Considering different time periods (1990–1999, 2000–2010, and 2011–2018), we analyse the trend of the fluxes with a key focus on the tropical regions (i.e., Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia). Three of the five data sources indicated a decline in the net emissions over the tropics over the period 1990–2018. The net FOLU emissions for the tropics varied with values of 5.47, 5.22, 4.28, 3.21, and 1.17 GtCO2 year−1 (for BLUE, OSCAR, updated H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs, respectively) over the recent period (2011–2018). Gross deforestation emissions over the same period were 5.87, 7.16, 5.48, 3.96, and 3.74 GtCO2 year−1 (for BLUE, OSCAR, updated H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs). The net forestland sink was −1.97, −3.08, −2.09, −0.53, and −3.00 GtCO2 year−1 (for BLUE, OSCAR, updated H&N2017, FAOSTAT, and NGHGIs). Continental analysis indicated that the differences between the data sources are much large in sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia than in Latin America. Disagreements in the FOLU emission estimates are mainly explained by differences in the managed land areas and the processes considered (i.e., direct vs indirect effects of land use change, and gross vs net accounting for deforestation). Net agricultural emissions from cropland, livestock, and rice cultivation were more homogenous across the FAOSTAT, EDGAR, and EPA datasets, with all the data sources indicating an increase in the emissions over the tropics. However, there were notable differences in the emission from agricultural fires. This study highlights the importance of investing and improving data sources for key fluxes to achieve a more robust and transparent global stocktake.
Opportunities for a low-emission transformation of Ghana’s food systems
Key messages
- Ghana’s food systems contribute significantly (54.1%) to total national anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – much above the global average (31%).
- The three primary sources of food system emissions in Ghana, ranked by decreasing order of importance, are: (i) land-use change emissions from deforestation, accounting for 40.7% of total food system emissions; (ii) farm gate emissions from livestock management (21.8%); and (iii) beyond-farm gate emissions from wastewater treatment and discharge (17.2%).
- While land-use change, livestock management, and waste dominate Ghana’s food system emissions, the most effective mitigation strategies emerge from considering both the origin and size of these emissions, as well as where Ghana can most rapidly and realistically implement change. The proposed priority measures therefore integrate emission magnitude with technical, economic, and institutional feasibility, consistent with Ghana’s Nationally Determined Contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Ghana’s food security and development priorities.
- Priority mitigation actions comprise intensifying cocoa production through agroforestry and strengthening preparedness for the EU Deforestation Regulation; improving fire management through controlled early burning and firebreak systems; reducing livestock emissions by boosting productivity and animal health; investing in urban (solid and water) waste management; diversifying into legumes and aquaculture to reduce dependence on meat for protein intake; actively integrating food system mitigation with improved market access and development; and increasing forest-related carbon sinks.
Towards low-emission food systems in Ghana: A country profile
Food systems – spanning the five economic sectors of agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), and waste – account for about one-third of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, making them a critical yet often under-reported component of the climate challenge. This document is part of a series of national country profiles. Comparing FAOSTAT and national estimates from Ghana’s first Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) and Common Reporting Tables (CRT), this document provides an overall view of land use, forest, and agriculture, food security and diet, and food system emissions in Ghana. It identifies the following no-regret priorities for mitigation action: (i) zero-deforestation cocoa agroforestry that combines yield intensification with forest conservation and smallholder compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation; (ii) savanna fire management through early burning and community firebreaks to curb late-season fires and emission peaks; (iii) livestock productivity and manure management improvements focusing on feed quality, animal health and composting to lower methane and nitrous oxide intensities without harming food security; (iv) urban wastewater and solid waste management via segregation, composting and anaerobic digestion to reduce methane and to recycle nutrients; and (v) nutrition-sensitive diversification through aquaculture, legumes and poultry to close the protein supply gap while cutting emissions intensity.
Tree-based intervention typologies and improvements in refugee displacement regions
Concern about deforestation in contexts of refugee displacement is substantial. Tree-based interventions (TBIs) are efforts to plant trees, conserve trees, and/or facilitate tree regrowth. TBIs are implemented by non-governmental organizations in refugee displacement contexts to address landscape-level deforestation, soil erosion, and biodiversity loss while providing livelihood opportunities to participants. Although humanitarian stakeholders recommend TBIs in refugee-hosting regions, the diversity of TBI models and associated strengths and weaknesses are not well understood. This research focuses on five TBIs implemented in a northwest Uganda refugee settlement that include large-acre woodlot planting, household-level planting of trees yielding short-term products, and conservation site establishment to protect indigenous tree species. Interviews and focus-group discussions with TBI staff revealed that each intervention makes trade-offs in navigating five key challenges associated with TBI implementation in a refugee context: Obtaining access to land, providing short-term livelihood benefits to participants, gaining equitable involvement by gender, achieving environmental conservation goals, and successfully engaging community members. Significant differences were found between the strategies of TBIs implemented at home sites when compared to TBIs implemented at community sites. While TBIs implemented at home sites are intended to provide participants long-term access to tree products with clear user rights and enable women to grow trees alongside ongoing domestic activities, TBIs implemented at community sites can achieve large-scale environmental goals and provide cash-based employment opportunities to participants. An applied integrated landscape approach is recommended to maximize inter-program collaboration and collective benefits across programs, while realizing sustainable TBI impacts within complex socioecological refugee displacement contexts.
The new EU Deforestation Regulation: towards inclusive and sustainable forest and agricultural commodity chains
It is clear that voluntary demand-side measures alone are not enough to address deforestation stemming from unsustainable consumption patterns and lifestyles mostly in higher income countries (tele)coupled with land-use change in middle- and lower-income countries. Further regulatory measures are needed to address globally pressing deforestation due to land-use change to cultivate given raw materials and sourcing products from the Global South including for consumption in the European market (Pendrill, Gardner et al., 2022; Pendrill, Persson et al., 2019). Such interconnected challenges are not solved by voluntary sustainability standards alone and call for binding due diligence rules towards deforestation-free commodity chains. With its legislative lever, the European Union (EU) has gone ahead and adopted the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The EUDR is a critical piece of legislation for governing deforestation-free supply chains located in the EU market. It is targeted at deforestation-free forest and agricultural commodity chains (cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee, rubber).
REDD+ Projects and Their Impact on Household Incomes in Indonesian Borneo
In Indonesia, early Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) projects, established in the early 2010s, were required to self-fund through carbon credit sales or donor aid while supporting local livelihoods. This paper examines the impact of REDD+ projects on both agricultural and overall household incomes (i.e., from all economic activities, including agriculture). We hypothesize that the agricultural incomes of REDD+ participating households (or treated households) would decrease as REDD+ forbids forest clearance, but this loss would be offset by a subsequent rise in overall household income as REDD+ encourages income diversification. Additionally, we assess whether REDD+ implementation has an intra-community ‘spillover’ effect by comparing the incomes of households living in REDD+ villages but abstaining from participation, with those in non-REDD+ (control) villages. We evaluate two such projects in Indonesian Borneo (Kalimantan) using panel survey data from over 400 households, collected in 2010, 2014, and 2018. Our analysis employs panel difference-in-differences in matched samples. Overall, our results reveal a small, heterogeneous impact of REDD+ on household incomes. While we found no significant impact in East Kalimantan’s BFCP site, participation in Central Kalimantan’s KMP site led to a reduced agricultural income over the short term (2010-2014). However, we detected no improvement in overall household income, nor did we find this impact to be long-lasting. We also found no conclusive evidence of intra-community spillover effects. The short-term income shock observed at the KMP site, despite its small overall magnitude, indicates the need for strategies to support and safeguard household incomes against temporary disruptions associated with REDD+ implementation. Our research contributes to the broader discourse on REDD+ performance, echoing previous findings of its mixed and modest impact on local communities’ incomes globally.
Partnering on Forests and Climate with Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities: Improving Success Indicators with Insights from a Conservation Incentive Program in Perú
Despite substantial investments to curb tropical deforestation, effective conservation incentives for Indigenous peoples and local communities is not well-defined and generally under-researched. This study assessed an incentive mechanism in Peru for Indigenous communities that protect enrolled forests to explore whether the stated program goals are actualized in programmatic elements like the requirements, monitoring, and assessment of prioritized outcomes. The research team worked with Indigenous partners to develop key questions regarding how the mechanism could better support their values of conservation and development. Data were sourced from interviews with implementation experts and participants in eight Indigenous communities, a review of programmatic documents, and an assessment of nationally aggregated community data. The results revealed challenges in program capacity, a lack of cultural awareness, and a reliance on capitalistic economic indicators that exclude other aspects of well-being important for Indigenous peoples. We find that the program’s success indicators do not adequately align with conservation or social realities on the ground and that enhanced indicators are needed to ensure success and avoid negative unintended consequences. We demonstrate that enhancing the assessment of governance, economics, engagement, and social inclusion can improve the design, implementation, and monitoring in this and similar programming. We conclude with generalizable recommendations for establishing requirements and monitoring in existing and future conservation incentive programs that target Indigenous communities.