Advancing palm oil sustainability to address the climate crisis: Leveraging theory of change and system dynamics model at the jurisdictional level

Global green deals, such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), aim to enhance the environmental governance of key commodities, including palm oil, cocoa, timber, and soy, by requiring them to be deforestation-free, legally sourced, and traceable. EUDR poses both challenges and opportunities for producing countries. This study explores how Indonesia’s palm oil sector can align with EUDR-defined sustainability standards through inclusive and systemic approaches. We employed a participatory Theory of Change involving key stakeholders across the palm oil value chain, supported by systems dynamic modeling to simulate trade-offs and identify strategic pathways toward sustainability. The approach revealed inevitable trade-offs between economic, ecological, and social dimensions. Practical solutions are available to support EUDR compliance by reducing deforestation and illegal activity while sustaining the palm oil economy. These include production intensification, certification, carbon credit, payment for environmental services, and ecological fiscal transfers from the central government. These strategies have been collaboratively developed and endorsed by both the government and stakeholders. Indonesia’s experience demonstrates that participatory, system-based methods can facilitate alignment with global sustainability regulations while addressing local priorities. The lessons and approaches apply to other environmentally sensitive commodities and geographies that aim to meet global environmental and social standards.

China’s forests: global lessons from market reforms

This book examines the experience of China’s forestry sector with respect to the full set of forest and nonforest policy reforrms introduced since 1978. The lessons of this book are important for China, and for the rest of the world as well. For China the analyses in each chapter provides rigorous evidence on those policies that have worked and on how well the have worked. The book consists of 10 chapters: 1. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B. Introduction and Appendix table: policy reform in China’s forestry; 2. Liu Dachang, Edmund, D. Devolution as a means of expanding local forest management in South China: lessons from the past 20 years; 3. Jinlong Liu, Landell-Mills, N. Taxes and fees in the Southern collective forest region; 4. Runsheng Yin. Central characteristics of reform: measures of the effects of improved property rights, a stable policy environment, and environmental protection; 5. Daowei Zhang. Policy reform and investment in forestry; 6. Rozelle, S., Jikun Huang, Benziger, V. Forest exploitation and protection in reform China: assessing the impacts of policy and economic growth; 7. Yaoqi Zhang, Uusivuori, J., Kuuluvainen, J., Kant, S. Deforestation and reforestation in Hainan: roles of markets and institution; 8. Ruiz-Perez, M., Belcher, B., Maoyi Fu, Xiaosheng Yang. Forestry, poverty, and rural development: perspectives from the bamboo sector; 9. Sayer, J.A., Changjin Sun. Impacts of policy reforms on forest environments and biodiversity; 10. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B., Runsheng Yin, Jinlong Liu. Conclusions and policy implications.

The impacts of oil palm plantations on forests and people in Papua: A case study from Boven Digoel District

Oil palm plantations can be a significant contributor to rural livelihoods in Indonesia. The government seeks to capitalize on this commodity and strengthen Indonesia’s position as the global leader in palm oil production by expanding plantation estates. As the land for new plantation investment in Kalimantan and Sumatra becomes scarce, plantation developers are looking east to acquire land in Papua Province. The rising interest in oil palm plantations in Papua presents potential opportunities but also poses challenges.
Drawing on research findings from Boven Digoel District, one of the key areas for oil palm expansion in Papua, this paper illustrates the dilemma of plantation development in the region by examining the social, economic and environmental impacts.
Plantation development in Boven Digoel District has opened up isolated areas, stimulated the development of infrastructure, generated employment and improved worker incomes. However, the indigenous communities’ reliance on forests for subsistence and their lack of familiarity with oil palm as a cash crop has proven to be a major barrier to effective engagement of the local population. In addition, the decision by the company not to implement an outgrower scheme has led to limited community involvement, rising tensions about land acquisition processes and resentment about low compensation payments.
The development of oil palm plantations has also resulted in deforestation and other negative environmental impacts, such as poor water quality, air pollution and soil erosion. Reducing environmental damage and creating better conditions for the productive engagement of local communities are major challenges for plantation investment in forested frontier regions such as Papua.

Rights to Benefit from Forest? A Case Study of the Timber Harvest Quota System in Southwest China

Although efforts in improving forest rights across developing countries are growing, de jure property rights and physical ownership of forests do not automatically enable farmers to obtain benefits from forests. Their access to forest benefits is limited by a range of legal and extralegal mechanisms. This case study describes a notable pattern of timber-harvest governance in China, in which centralized quota setting and allocation allow rent-seeking behavior on the part of powerful local elites who control timber harvest and trade by handing out logging permits, and who also reap the greatest proportion of benefits. It is argued that excluding farmers from harvesting and trade discourages them from investing in forest conservation over the long term. This calls for a policy to gradually remove the quota system so that farmers can obtain forest benefits. © 2016, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Integrating adaptation into REDD+: potential impacts and social return on investment in Sogod, Southern Leyte, Philippines

REDD+ interventions can help both people and forests adapt to climate change by conserving or enhancing biodiversity and forest ecosystem services. However, additional adaptation measures might be needed, such as the protection of agriculture and livelihoods and the development of fire management strategies. Such measures could support the sustainability of REDD+ interventions and the permanence of carbon stocks by preventing activity displacement and induced deforestation and by limiting or avoiding damage to the ecosystem from extreme weather events. To design community-based adaptation interventions and assess their potential outcomes within the Southern Leyte Province REDD+ project area in the Philippines, representatives from seven upland Barangays (villages) of Sogod Municipality were involved in a bottom-up, stakeholder-focused process. A social return on investment framework was applied. Community members discussed climate and non-climate challenges and the effectiveness of their current coping strategies. Adaptation interventions were then conceived and planned, using future visioning exercises. Two interventions were prioritized: securing land tenure and developing abaca agroforestry (Musa textilis inter-planted with different fruit trees). Challenges and adaptation interventions were also discussed with stakeholders from relevant local- and regionallevel organizations (e.g. provincial and municipal government agencies) during a participatory workshop. Projected future climate scenarios, the sensitivity of key resources and adaptive capacity were also discussed. This resulted in a holistic understanding of the costs, benefits, opportunities and challenges associated with implementing the selected adaptation strategies not only in the target area, but also in the province more broadly. The Southern Leyte Province REDD+ project is implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH and the Philippine Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in collaboration with local government units and local communities under the Project ‘Climate-relevant Modernization of Forest Policy and Piloting of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) in the Philippines’, funded by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) under its International Climate Initiative. This study was conducted by CIFOR in collaboration with GIZ with a grant from the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

Integrating adaptation into REDD+: potential impacts and social return on investment in Setulang, Malinau District, Indonesia

REDD+ interventions can help both people and forests adapt to climate change by conserving or enhancing biodiversity and forest ecosystem services. However, additional adaptation measures might be needed, such as the protection of agriculture and livelihoods and the development of fire management strategies. Such measures could support the sustainability of REDD+ interventions and the permanence of carbon stocks by preventing activity displacement and induced deforestation and by limiting or avoiding damage to the ecosystem from extreme weather events. To design community-based adaptation interventions and assess their potential outcomes within the Community Forest (Hutan Desa) REDD+ project area in Setulang Village, Malinau District, Kalimantan,village representatives were involved in a bottom-up, stakeholder-focused process. A social return on investment framework was applied. Community members discussed climate and non-climate challenges and the effectiveness of their current coping strategies. Adaptation interventions were then conceived and planned, using future visioning exercises. Two interventions were prioritized: development of rattan handicraft enterprises and rubber agroforestry. Challenges and adaptation interventions were also discussed with stakeholders from relevant district organizations (e.g. local government agencies) through individual semi-structured interviews. Projected future climate scenarios, the sensitivity of key resources and adaptive capacity were also discussed. This resulted in a holistic understanding of the costs, benefits, opportunities and challenges associated with implementing the selected adaptation strategies not only in the target area, but also in the district more broadly. The Community Forest (Hutan Desa) project in Setulang, Malinau, is facilitated by the FORCLIME programme of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH. This study was conducted by CIFOR in collaboration with the GIZ, with a grant from the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Germany.

Forest management status of public forests in seven districts in Western Province and two districts in Northern Province of Rwanda

This report explores the status and challenges of forest management in and around the Congo-Nile Ridge (CNR) landscape in Rwanda, covering the seven districts of Western Province and two districts in the country’s Northern Province. Key stakeholders in forest management include the central government represented by the Rwanda Forestry Authority, local district-level governments, local communities, and other forest actors and projects identified during stakeholder consultations. The report provides recommendations for improving the management of public forests.

Synthesis report can be accessed: here

Evaluating the determinants of deforestation and approaches to reforestation by cocoa farmers in Côte d’Ivoire

Cocoa cultivation is a major driver of deforestation in Côte d’Ivoire, particularly within classified forests. This study explores the socio-economic and environmental motivations behind cocoa farming in these areas, focusing on land tenure security, soil fertility, and ethnic influences on tree species selection. It reveals that native and migrant farmers differ in their regional presence and decision-making, with key motivations including land access assurances and fertile soils. Farmers prioritize income, shade, and food when retaining trees, favoring species like Garcinia kola, Ricinodendron heudelotii, and Terminalia superba. Additionally, many preserve wooded plots for family use and inheritance. These insights highlight the need for targeted policies—such as land tenure reforms and incentives for tree retention—that align forest restoration with sustainable cocoa production and farmer livelihoods.

Cocoa Certification in Sulawesi, Indonesia: Too Late and Too Little for the Environment?

Cocoa certification aims to address commodity-driven deforestation and promote sustainable agriculture, but its effectiveness remains insufficiently studied. In this study, we selected 40 cocoa plantations through stratified random sampling in Luwu Utara, Sulawesi, Indonesia, the largest cocoa producer in Asia. We assessed the implementation of cocoa certification and the vegetation structure of these plantations. Our findings show that 13 of the 40 plantations were certified under the Rainforest Alliance. Certification was primarily achieved by farmers at lower elevations, near infrastructure such as roads and cocoa collection centers, and by members of farmer associations. Consequently, certification mainly covered older plantations with less shade tree species richness, located farther from primary forest fronts. Therefore, it is too late to prevent commodity-driven deforestation. When matching certified and non-certified plantations based on elevation, we found no significant differences in shade tree basal area or shade tree species richness between them. The Rainforest Alliance requires 15% natural vegetation cover for cocoa plantations, which is too low to effectively support biodiversity or incentivize planting shade trees.

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