Perennial woody crops, which are crucial to our diets and global economies, have the potential to play a major role in achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to biodiversity conservation, socio-economic development and climate change mitigation. However, this potential is hindered by insufficient scientific and policy attention on perennial woody crops, and by the intensification of perennial crop cultivation in the form of monocropping with high external inputs. In this Perspective, we highlight the potential of properly managed and incentivized perennial woody crops to support holistic sustainable development and urge scientists and policymakers to develop an effective agenda to better harness their benefits.
Tag: climate change mitigation
A bottom-up approach to estimating emissions from food systems: Using Biennial Transparency Reports for fine- grained, country-level estimations
Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from food systems remains a major challenge due to the lack of harmonized, sector-specific data that capture their cross-cutting nature. Food systems span all economic sectors along which national GHG inventories are usually structured: energy, industry, agriculture, land use and waste. However, national inventories are not fine-grained enough to disaggregate the share of food in those emissions, obscuring their full contribution and hindering integrated mitigation planning. Reliable, up-to-date country-level data are scarce, and global databases rely heavily on top-down estimates and outdated assumptions.
To address this gap, we introduce a model estimating food system emissions (FSE) in Common Reporting Tables (CRT). The FSE-CRT model is a straightforward, transparent and bottom-up approach that draws exclusively on official national data, as reported by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) through their Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs) and CRTs. It offers a credible alternative to global datasets that is grounded in nationally generated data that countries can control and validate (data sovereignty), and aligned with their priorities for food security and self-determined reporting.
Based on the first 83 CRTs available as of mid-2025, the FSE-CRT model estimates FSE at 10.6 GtCO₂eq, matching the FAOSTAT estimate of 10.3 GtCO₂eq for the same 83 countries. When extrapolated to all countries, this corresponds to 16.8 GtCO₂eq, very close to the global estimate of 17 GtCO₂eq reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: Babiker et al. 2022). The FSE-CRT model thus provides a realistic and replicable framework to validate and refine global FSE estimates, while enabling consistent, country- driven assessments for policy and planning.
3.4. PEATLANDS (in Chapter 3: Soil)
Peatlands are among the most concentrated terrestrial carbon stores, containing about 644 GtC, or 21% of global soil organic carbon (SOC). This is nearly double the carbon stored in all forest biomass worldwide. Despite covering only 3% of Earth’s land surface, peatlands are critical carbon reservoirs, mainly located in boreal and temperate regions, with smaller areas in the tropics. When drained for agriculture or other land uses, peatlands release large amounts of CO₂ and N₂O due to microbial decomposition. Current degraded and cultivated peatlands are projected to cumulatively emit 80.8 Gt of carbon and 2.3 Gt of nitrogen over the coming centuries, equivalent to contemporary annual emissions of 1.91 (0.31–3.38) GtCO₂e. Protecting peatlands is therefore vital for climate mitigation.
Mangrove-based carbon market projects: Current trends and future perspectives
Blue carbon ecosystems are among the largest carbon sinks in the world, with significant potential for carbon sequestration in their biomass, soils and sediments. Blue carbon credits offer companies the opportunity to offset their residual carbon emissions and achieve their carbon neutrality commitments. Mangrove-based carbon market projects (MbCMP) contribute greatly to the global supply of blue carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market (VCM). Thus, the current trends, challenges and opportunities intrinsic to MbCMP development, implementation and management need to be assessed on a global scale. We conducted a comprehensive systematic review and retrieved 260 articles, including 84 peer-reviewed articles and 176 gray literature from Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and Google searches, from January 2010 to December 2024. In addition, we explored the databases of carbon certification standard registries to obtain up-to-date information of MbCMP. We present the results and discuss insights grouped into the following categories: (i) geographic distribution and current status of MbCMP, (ii) trends in development and growth, (iii) challenges faced, and (iv) proposed solutions to improve the quality and integrity of MbCMP. The recommendations include: (a) improving transparency and governance, (b) advancing risk management and adaptation, (c) building scientific and technical skills of stakeholders, (d) enhancing capacity building, community engagement and knowledge sharing, (e) strengthening policy support and institutions, (f) upscaling projects, (g) protecting complex and insecure land tenure systems, (h) safeguarding financial resources and equitable sharing of benefits, and (i) increasing accuracy of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) data. Although significant challenges remain, the reduction in global mangrove loss, driven by recent improvements in conservation, protection and restoration initiatives, provides immense optimism for the growth and sustainability of the MbCMP sector with true benefits in terms of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation.
Vietnam’s transition to low-emission food systems: 2025 country profile – 2nd Edition
This Occasional Paper was first published in 2023 and updated in 2025 to include revised national data and analysis.
The global food system is responsible for 23 – 42% of total net anthropogenic emissions. This share will likely increase in the future, driven by population and economic growth and changes in lifestyle, as other economic sectors are progressively decarbonized. Without rapid and radical transformations in food systems, the Paris Agreement targets will likely remain out of reach. Data on GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and removals are usually collected and analyzed across five economic sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, LULUCF (Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry) and waste). This makes it hard to identify and estimate food system emissions, which span across all these sectors.
This occasional paper is the second edition, revised, updated and expanded, of a previous analysis of food system emissions in Vietnam. It successively examines land use, agriculture (including fisheries and aquaculture), diets, and food system emissions in Vietnam, in the light of national climate engagements, policies and programs. It highlights the following largest sources of emissions from Vietnam’s food system: rice cultivation (23.4% of total food system emissions); livestock emissions related to enteric fermentation and manure management (16.7%); food household consumption (12.7%); food processing (10.1%); synthetic fertilizers, manufacturing and application (10.0%); and food system waste disposal (5.8%). Together, these sources emitted 117.8 MtCO₂eq in 2022 and accounted for 78.8% of all food system emissions.
Based on this analysis, this paper identifies four priorities for mitigation action, well aligned with national priorities: (i) reducing emissions from rice production; (ii) reducing livestock emissions related to enteric fermentation and manure management; (iii) reducing emissions from synthetic fertilizer production and use; and (iv) improving the data situation to understand and pinpoint the focus areas and address emissions from food household consumption and food loss and waste.
System dynamics model for sustainable rice estate development to achieve food security with low carbon emissions
Key messages
- We developed a system dynamics model – sustainable rice estate for food security with low carbon emissions (SECURE) – to explore different scenarios and develop plans for food security, especially for rice, while minimizing the impact of carbon emissions.
- The baseline simulation shows a clear need for Indonesia to be food self-sufficient (swasembada pangan), particularly for rice. There will be a gap of 4.2 million metric tons of rice needs by 2030, and the gap will continue to increase after 2030. Climate change, increased population, and shrinking paddy rice fields widen the supply and demand gap.
- Our system dynamics model highlights that food estate development in Papua and Kalimantan requires caution as it could undermine Indonesia’s climate change commitment through FOLU (Forest and Land Use) Net Sink 2030, which aims to have net-zero emissions in 2030.
- Simulating conversion of convertible production forests (Hutan Produksi Konversi – HPK) to rice estates contributed to most of the emissions, including in Kalimantan and Papua. Although this is a legal conversion, our model shows that it will potentially emit 301 million metric tons of CO₂e, as HPK still consists of forest cover.
- We propose scenarios for food–climate solutions by examining land areas with fewer or no trees and developing rice food estates. In our simulation, the combination of rice planting in non-forested areas with increased rice yield productivity and staple food diversification is the best option to fulfil rice demand, along with reducing emissions.
- We identify institutional arrangements for this scenario under the current administration.
Nationally determined contributions to the 2015 Paris Agreement goals: transparency in communications from developing country Parties
The goals of the Paris Agreement (PA) on collectively managing climate change can only be reached if all parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commit to actions supporting their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Developing-economy nations play a crucial role in reaching the PA targets, particularly in the Agriculture, Forest, and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector. However, developing country Parties also face several constraints in tracking and communicating progress towards their climate policy targets and implementation of their NDCs. The operationalization of Biennial Transparency Report (BTR) and Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) under the PA will bring stricter reporting timeframes and advanced transparency for all parties. With these requirements rapidly coming into force, addressing reporting gaps is now a pressing priority. The present study analyzes the NDCs, and Biennial Update Reports (BURs) submitted by developing country Parties under the UNFCCC. In an illustrative exercise, our in-depth analysis concentrates on reporting on the AFOLU sector and identifies issues impeding a comprehensive and comparable Global Stock Take (GST): (i) issues of consistency in reporting timeframes (ii) issues in transparency of reporting on mitigation sectors and on relevant progress indicators (iii) incomparability of methodological approaches proposed and used, and (iv) the implications of limited national capacity for transparent reporting. The UNFCCC and developed country Parties now have the opportunity of providing specialized support for developing country Parties. This could include tailored guidance to address gaps in both greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions accounting, and reporting challenges, to ensure consistent, comprehensive, and transparent reporting to reinforce capacities moving forward following the next GST.
A scalable, annual aboveground biomass product for monitoring carbon impacts of ecosystem restoration projects
Restoring natural ecosystems has the potential to remove billions of tons of CO2 annually through the end of the century, but rigorously measuring the climate impacts of restoration activities on the ground remains elusive. Ecosystem restoration interventions across hundreds or thousands of smallholder properties require robust above-ground biomass (AGB) products at high spatial (deca-metric: 10–30 m) resolution for annual monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV). In addition to ongoing monitoring, historical AGB time series across the region are also necessary. Historical maps are for example needed for eligibility checks and the selection of appropriate counterfactuals, i.e., to establish a dynamic performance benchmark. We present a novel AGB product based on a recently developed foundation model leveraging progress in self-supervised learning (SSL) techniques from multi-spectral Earth Observation (EO) time series. The foundation model is non-contrastive and condenses all available spectral observations acquired within a year into a few, orthogonal and highly informative representations at 10 m (for Sentinel-2) and 30 m (for Landsat 7/8). Combined with spatially sparse Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) full-waveform measurements at two relative heights (RH95 and RH10), but otherwise without any further fine-tuning, we are able to estimate forest biomass with an RMSE of <25 Mg/ha, when validated against 38 in-situ AGB measurement sites across a range of agroforestry (cacao and oil palm) and restoration age classes. Compared to five openly available datasets – most of them not available at annual time steps – our approach reduces the RMSE by 15–55%. We demonstrate the scalability of our approach, by producing annual AGB maps covering the entire state of Para, Brazil, for the years 2013 to 2024. The approach is computationally efficient, fully self-supervised without relying on contrastive samples, and can therefore be scaled to global coverage, even under conditions of high cloudiness.
Exploring the potential of territorial funds to achieve equitable and inclusive direct climate and biodiversity finance
Indigenous Peoples (IP), local communities (LC), and Afro-descendants (AD) need to play crucial roles if countries are to achieve our 2030 global nature, biodiversity, and climate goals. An estimated 2.5 billion IP, LC, and AD hold customary rights and use half of the remaining forests and biodiversity, which are key for providing critical ecosystem services to sustain human well-being (WRI 2024). At least 36 per cent of the world’s remaining intact forest landscapes are within IP’s lands (Fa et al. 2020). IP, LC, and AD safeguard knowledge and practices that can contribute to avoiding biodiversity loss and building resilience to climate change impacts (Dawson et al. 2020; Phuong Phan et al. 2021). However, despite the effectiveness in stewarding nature, developing solutions, and implementing strategies, less donor funding is being disbursed to IP, LC, and ADs in comparison to other climate and environmental measures. Drawing on the author’s work in research and philanthropy, this essay reflects on the potential of emerging territorial funding mechanisms for promoting equitable and effective direct biodiversity and climate finance outcomes. Territorial funds can contribute to addressing barriers and challenges to direct funding. In the face of unfavourable scenarios that question the future of international climate frameworks, territorial funds have the potential to strengthen the governance of tropical forest systems and the organisations underpinning the efforts to mitigate and adapt to the detrimental effects of climate change.
Monitoring Nature-Based Solutions for Emission Reductions: Insights from Makueni and Taita Taveta Counties, Kenya
This insights brief begins by outlining the global challenges of land degradation and the corresponding international commitments. It highlights the central role of nature-based solutions (NbS), particularly FLR, as a pivotal strategy for combating land degradation and mitigating climate change. It then outlines Kenya’s FLR priorities, describes the monitoring of FOLAREP outcomes at national and county levels, and underscores the importance of robust land-health indicators. It highlights the use of the Centre for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry’s (CIFOR-ICRAF’s) Land Degradation Surveillance Framework (LDSF) for the systematic landscape-level assessment of soil and ecosystem health and its integration with the Regreening App, emphasising the importance of citizen science for effective NbS monitoring. Initial LDSF results for Makueni and Taita Taveta sites are presented and the co-created UK PACT NbS Dashboard is introduced, illustrating how clear, accessible evidence can enhance transparency, support adaptive management, and strengthen policy coherence and decision-making. The brief concludes with key insights for effective NbS monitoring drawn from the UK PACT experience.