This study presents a novel five-step ensemble machine learning approach to improve predictive accuracy in assessing climate change impacts on inflow patterns and hydropower generation across seven dam basins in West Africa. The methodology integrates precipitation and temperature using the multi-lag approach. An initial pool of fifteen machine learning models were evaluated, and top-performing models were selected for further refinement through iterative ensemble stacking and weak learner elimination. Historical analysis (1983–2014) utilized CHIRPS and CHIRTS datasets. Future projections employed twelve bias-adjusted CMIP6 models and their ensemble mean (EnsMean) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for the near (2036–2067) and far (2068–2099) futures. Results showed notable improvements in model accuracy and efficiency across layers, with R² and NSE exceeding 0.6 for all inflow simulations and for selected energy simulations (Bagre, Nangbeto, and Taabo). Projections indicated warming up to 4.5°C and spatially heterogeneous precipitation changes across basins and scenarios, with SSP5-8.5 projecting the most pronounced shifts. Inflow reductions are projected to reach up to 24% at Buyo and 13% at Nangbeto, while hydropower output may decline by up to 19% at Nangbeto and 58% at Taabo in the future. Conversely, Manantali and Taabo are projected to experience inflow increases, and Bagre may see energy gains of up to 42% under SSP5-8.5. These findings highlight heightened vulnerability, as well as contrasting opportunities across the region, underscoring the urgent need for adaptive management strategies, such as enhancing hydropower system resilience, diversifying energy portfolios, and integrating renewable sources to mitigate climate risks. Hydropower managers and policymakers must prioritize proactive measures to ensure energy security and sustainable resource management amid changing climatic conditions.
Tag: water management
The determinants of SRP adoption to sustainable rice production in Mekong Delta Vietnam
Rice is the daily staple food of 3.5 billion people in the world. Vietnam, providing around 16% of the world’s milled rice exports, is the fifth-largest rice producer. Despite the role of rice in Vietnam’s economy, food security, and local livelihoods, rice farmers in Mekong Delta, Vietnam are now amongst the most vulnerable groups affected by the negative impacts of climate change and will be unstainable rice production. Using the Sustainable Rice Platform (SRP), consists of 12 sustainability impact indicators, linked to SDGs, as the best practices case to help rice farmers produce sustainable rice production. This study provides empirical evidence on the benefits of SRP adoption and explore factors affecting SRP uptake. Surveys and FGDs were applied to collect data from 243 rice-farmers in Dong Thap province. T-test and logistic regression were applied to analyse data. Results show that farmers have positively experienced SRP adoption and farmers achieved benefits from SRP adoption such as reduced input cost and increased income. Regression showed that socioeconomic, cognitive, and farm techniques factors strongly affected farmers’ adoption of SRP. Therefore, to scale up farmers’ SRP adoption training and technical assistance, socioeconomic constraints (e.g. water use) are required. Policymakers, planners, and private actors, particularly farmers’ behaviour need to consider the factors that affecting them adopting SRP. Finally, this study highlights the potential of SRP to promote environmentally sustainable rice production and improve farmers’ resilience to climate change.
Global literature review and survey of implementation constraints on natural climate solutions
Natural Climate Solutions – protection, restoration, and improved management of lands and waters that reduce greenhouse gasses – have large climate change mitigation potential. However, lack of comprehensive information on implementation challenges hinders the adoption of Natural Climate Solutions and the delivery of near-term mitigation. Using a global survey of Natural Climate Solutions projects and a systematic review of recent studies, we map 46 constraints in eight categories, yielding 15,572 geo-referenced pathway-constraint observations from 501 studies and projects in 137 countries covering 20 of 22 United Nations subregions. Social-behavioral, Knowledge, and Government-Organizational are the most-reported constraint categories, and lack of policy coordination or implementation capacity the most-observed constraint and most frequently top-ranking constraint for pathways and subregions. Despite broad congruence, top constraint and category rankings vary among subregions and pathways, respectively. We find that projects generally encounter diverse sets of challenges. Without enabling efforts, near-term mitigation from Natural Climate Solutions may remain well below its biophysical potential.
The Global Water Partnership (GWP) Associated Programme on “Water Conservation for Agriculture and Domestic use”: Annual Report, 2004-2005
Coping with history and hydrology: how Kenya’s settlement and land tenure patterns shape contemporary water rights and gender relations in water
Like many other African countries described in this volume, Kenya has recently enacted several new policies and public-sector reforms that affect its water sector. This chapter considers those reforms in the context of the country’s particular history of land tenure and settlement, a history that continues to have a profound influence on contemporary patterns of land and water management as well as on gender relations in water. The chapter focuses on the particular case of a river basin in Western Kenya, the Nyando river basin (3517 km 2), that has its outlet in Lake Victoria. Over the last century, the Nyando river basin has experienced a history that has shaped spatial patterns of land tenure, settlement and water management. The plural land management systems that exist in the basin today are the product of three distinct periods of historical change: (i) the pre-colonial era that was dominated by customary landholding and land rights systems; (ii) the colonial era in which large areas of land were alienated for specific users and the majority of the Kenyan population confined to native reserve areas; and (iii) the post-colonial era that has encouraged large-scale private ownership of land by men and a small public-sector ownership of irrigation land, all against the backdrop of customary norms and the colonial pattern of settlement and land use. Both colonial and post-colonial institutions have largely disre-garded women’s rights to land and water resources. Although customary norms are consistent in ensuring access to water for all members of particular ethnic groups, in practice access and management of water points vary across the basin depending upon the historically defined pattern of landownership and settlement. Customary norms that secure the rights of women to water resources tend to have most impact in former native reserve areas and least impact in ethnically heterogeneous resettlement areas held under leasehold tenure. Recommendations are made on how new policies, legislation and government institutions could be more effec-tive in promoting the water needs of rural communities in Kenya
The critical role of forests and trees in regulating the water cycle
Forests and trees – on or near agricultural land but also hundreds of kilometres away – can provide a range of water-related ecosystem services critical for agriculture, including freshwater supply, regulation of water flows, local climates and temperatures, as well as water damage mitigation, and water purification.
The water-related ecosystem services from trees and forests to agriculture are insufficiently monitored and valued, which means that they are under recognized in the agricultural sector and agriculture-related policies, resulting in economic losses for farmers and countries.
An integrated approach to landscape and natural resource management – forests and water – at various scales is essential for ensuring that the benefits of forests and trees for agriculture are optimized. Decision-support systems that consider trade-offs and synergies among the forest ecosystem services provided are emerging as key tools to facilitate this.
Strengthening Rural Capacity in Kapuas Hulu District Towards Enhancing The Climate-Smart Agriculture Technologies and Practices (ECSAP) of Smallholder Commodity Farmers
The Enhancing Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices (ECSAP) project in Kapuas Hulu, West Kalimantan, strengthens the capacity of smallholder farmers to adopt climate-smart agroforestry and sustainable farming systems. The project promotes soil and water conservation, diversified crops, and improved farm management to increase productivity while protecting forest and landscape health. Through training, demonstration plots, and knowledge exchange, farmers and extension workers enhance their technical and business skills. In Pondok Mensiau and surrounding villages, ECSAP supports community-based learning and local innovations that improve livelihoods and resilience. These efforts contribute to stronger rural institutions, sustainable incomes, and more climate-resilient agricultural landscapes.
Synthesis report on the co-design of agroecological innovations in the Agroecological Living Landscapes (ALLs) in Kenya
In Kenya, the CGIAR Agroecology Initiative (AE-I) has two agroecological living landscapes (ALLs), one in Kiambu County and a second in Makueni County. Work package 1 (WP1) of the AE-I entailed two key components: ALL establishment, and innovation co-design. In line with broader agroecology approaches and ontologies, both were to be achieved through transdisciplinary co-design processes. This report provides an overview of the innovation co-design process, its results, the scientific performance of co-designed practices and related reflections. First, the report introduces the three-pronged co-design approach, which included a preparatory phase, a co-design phase, and a trial phase; and outlines the many different steps involved in the process. It then provides details of the specific practices co-designed across the three identified focus areas in which most attention was required: soil management, water management, and integrated pest management. The respective practices for the Kiambu ALL included the use of compost manure, mulch, and chili-based biopesticides, and farmyard manure, planted terraces, and neem-based biopesticides in Makueni. In the first cycle of trials, each of these practices was put under trial on 10 farmers’ fields. The experimental design included on 5×6 m controlled test trial plot, and a second 5×6 m “uncontrolled” control plot. While the inputs used (including seeds, seedlings, and treatments) were centrally provided, and kept constant, the trial participants used their conventional practice in the control plots. With a few exceptions, this conventional practice is largely organic in Kiambu, and followed permaculture principles in Makueni. Third, the agronomic assessment of two consecutive experimentation cycles (October 2023-March 2024; May 2024-September 2024) revealed generally positive performance of the co-designed practices. A preliminary contextual climate analysis showed that both areas received excessive rainfall in the second cycle, with more than twice the long-term average in April and May. Experienced flooding and water logging considerably influenced agricultural production during that cycle. Considering gross productivity, yields only significantly improved in the Makueni ALL, while differences in Kiambu ALL were not significant. In Makueni, only farmyard manure had a significant effect on maize yields, while all three practices significantly improved bean yields. Considering pest and disease pressure, pests were significantly lower for cabbages in the IPM trials in Kiambu, but not for compost or mulch. In Makueni, pests were significantly lower for both maize and beans in the IPM trial, as well as for beans in the manure trial. Despite experiencing difficulties related to planting timing, the climatic conditions, the quality of the inputs used, and market constraints, the participating farmers evaluated the practices and their participation in the trials very positively. In the last two sections, the report discussed adoption and scaling approaches, and broader reflections on successes and challenges with the co-design process, and recommends a continuation of highly methodical and structured transdisciplinary innovation co-design. This report complements the detailed co-design report prepared by the WP1 Kenya team in 2023 (Fuchs et al., 2023b).
Environmental factors are an important part of farmers’ assessments of the value of agroecology
The need for transformation of food and agriculture systems to be aligned with sustainable development goals is widely acknowledged. Evidence from many parts of the world shows that agroecology, which considers the social and environmental performance of agricultural systems along with economic aspects, is helping farmers transition to sustainable agricultural systems. However, there are demands from national, regional and international food and agriculture planners and funders for evidence that agroecology can work at scale. Providing that evidence requires understanding how farmers use environmental factors when selecting agricultural practices, which is poorly documented. This study contributes to filling this gap by reporting how environmental factors are important in farmers’ decisions related to adopting agroecological practices. Qualitative and quantitative data from 239 key informants, a survey of 5025 farms, 85 focus group discussions with farmers and five participatory cross-benefit analyses in eleven case studies across eight African countries were used. We show that farmers use information on and perceptions of a wide range of environmental variables and processes when assessing the usefulness of agroecological practices. In most cases, farmers cited environmental factors more frequently than economic reasons for choosing to use agroecological practices. Most of the environmental factors articulated by farmers were components of the local or farm environment that were connected to their livelihood, including aspects of soils, water, microclimate, pests and diseases, other animals, and vegetation. Intrinsic and relational environmental values such as conservation of biodiversity, long-term maintenance of land quality and aesthetics were also important. These findings show first that providing data on environmental roles of agroecology will always be challenging because of the breadth of factors that are important. Secondly, viability or usefulness of an agroecological practice is not a characteristic of the practice alone, but also of the context in which it is used. Third, impact analyses of agroecological interventions cannot be confined to consideration of a few globally comparative indicators but need to include the context specific environmental factors that farmers care about.