Agriculture faces tremendous pressure to supply both growing and wealthier populations with more food, fiber, and fuel, while recognizing the limits of agricultural ecosystems. But it remains unclear whether it is possible to increase agricultural and food production without increasing deforestation and associated greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study was to advance the understanding of landscape-level implications of sustainable intensification of agriculture on forest conservation in Zambia. Sustainable intensification aims to increase agricultural yields and reduce deforestation. Miombo woodlands, a dry forest ecosystem common throughout the region, are the dominant biome in much of Zambia, and they are suitable for the production of charcoal, a commonly used cooking fuel among urban households. We used participatory system dynamics modeling to examine the drivers of deforestation in two provinces in Zambia. We modeled four scenarios to examine their effects on reducing deforestation over a 50-year simulation period: (i) an increase in maize yield from adoption of SI practices, and (ii) occasional moderate and severe drought events, (iii) adoption of efficient charcoal cookstoves, and (iv) full electrification. We found no effects of adoption of sustainable intensification practices on agricultural encroachment into forested ecosystems. The clearing of forested land for agriculture was found to be largely driven by the rising demand for wood fuels for cooking and heating, particularly charcoal in urban areas. Charcoal was increasingly dominant as a driver of deforestation in both provinces such that changes in land practices and economic returns to farmers are unlikely to reveal measurable changes in land use. The findings have implications for the development of integrated approaches to address the challenges of food and energy insecurity, as well as for national-level policies aimed at climate change mitigation and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study provides a unique and innovative approach to integrating social and biophysical/ecological data through the application of system dynamics modeling. Furthermore, the study contributes to the literature on the environmental implications of agricultural land use and the drivers of deforestation.
Tag: deforestation
Small scale agriculture continues to drive deforestation and degradation in fragmented forests in the Congo Basin (2015-2020)
The Central African region hosts the largest continuous tract of forest in Africa, regulating global climate while providing essential resources and livelihoods for millions of people and harbouring extensive biodiversity. Extractive industries, infrastructure development and industrial agriculture have often been cited as major threats to these forests and are expected to increase. A regional collaborative effort has produced the first systematically validated remote sensing assessment of deforestation and degradation drivers in six central African countries for the 2015–2020 time period. Multiple, overlapping drivers are assessed through visual interpretation and show that the rural complex, a combination of small-scale agriculture, villages, and roads contributes to the majority of observed deforestation and degradation. Industrial drivers such as mining and forestry are less common, although their impacts on carbon and biodiversity could be more permanent and significant than informal activities. Artisanal forestry is the only driver that is observed to be consistently increasing over the study period. Our assessment produces information relevant for climate change mitigation and land use planning which requires detailed information on multiple direct drivers to target specific activities and investments.
Forest loss in Indonesian New Guinea (2001–2019): Trends, drivers and outlook
The rich forests of Indonesian New Guinea are understudied and threatened. We used satellite data to examine annual forest loss, road development and plantation expansion from 2001 to 2019, then developed a model to predict future deforestation. No previous studies have attempted such a detailed assessment of past and future deforestation. In 2019, 34.29 million hectares (Mha), or 83% of Indonesian New Guinea, supported old-growth forest. Over nineteen years, 2% (0.75 Mha) were cleared: 45% (0.34 Mha) converted to industrial plantations, roads, mine tailings, or other uses near cities; 55% (0.41 Mha) cleared by transient processes including selective natural timber extraction, inland water bodies-related processes, fires, and shifting agriculture. Industrial plantations expanded by 0.23 Mha, with the majority (0.21 Mha; 28% of forest loss) replacing forests and reaching 0.28 Mha in 2019 (97% oil palm; 3% pulpwood). The Trans-Papua Highway, a ~4000 km national investment project, increased by 1554 km. Positive correlations between highway and plantations expansion indicate these are linked processes. Plantations and roads expanded rapidly after 2011, peaked in 2015/16, and declined thereafter. Indonesian government allocated 2.62 Mha of land for the development of industrial plantations (90% oil palm 10% pulpwood) of which 74% (1.95 Mha) remained forest in 2019. A spatial model predicts that an additional 4.5 Mha of forest could be cleared by 2036 if Indonesian New Guinea follows similar relationships to Indonesian Borneo. We highlight the opportunities for policy reform and the importance of working with indigenous communities, local leaders, and provincial government to protect the biological and cultural richness still embodied in this remarkable region.
A political-economy model to reduce fire and improve livelihoods in Indonesia’s lowlands
Deforestation and land degradation have been occurring across the globe, particularly in developing countries. Over the past 30 years, Indonesia’s lowlands have experienced rapid degradation, deforestation and fires. Interventions aimed to achieve sustainable lowlands have been made through the introduction and adoption of commodities that provide sufficient livelihoods and reduce fires. However, these interventions have not guaranteed success as the contribution of the governance and political economy towards sustainability is poorly understood. This study aims to determine how governance and political-economic factors affect sustainability of lowland agriculture. We used structural equation modeling (SEM) to understand the effect of political economy factors (structure, institution and actor) on sustainability and community livelihoods in Indonesian lowlands. Data were collected through interviews with selected respondents. We found Structure, Institution, and Actor explain 31% (0.31) of the variation in the Sustainability and Livelihoods model. The remaining effects were explained by non-political economic factors. Using actor-centered power (ACP) and social network analysis (SNA) approaches, we also identified and assessed different actors’ power and their networks. The central government and private companies are the most powerful actors, while farmers are the least powerful actors. The findings demonstrate that considering governance and political-economic factors in designing and implementing commodity interventions for policy makers is a must. Devolving power to farmers is crucial in achieving power balance among various actors, which leads to better political economy condition that affects sustainability of lowlands.
Quo vadis global forest governance? A transdisciplinary delphi study
Deforestation and forest degradation remain huge global environmental challenges. Over the last decades, various forest governance initiatives and institutions have evolved in global response to interlinked topics such as climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, indigenous rights, and trade impacts – accompanied by various levels of academic attention. Using a Delphi methodology that draws on both policy and academic insights, we assess the currently perceived state of play in global forest governance and identify possible future directions. Results indicate that state actors are seen to be key in providing supportive regulatory frameworks, yet interviewees do not believe these will be established at the global scale. Rather, respondents point to issue-specific, regional and inter-regional coalitions of the willing, involving the private sector, to innovate global forest governance. Linking forest issues with high politics may hold promise, as demonstrated by initiatives regarding illegal logging and timber trade. Confident rule-setting in support of the public good as well as responsible investments are seen as further avenues. New forest governance “hypes”, if used strategically, can provide leverage points and resources to ensure sustainability effects on the ground. At the same time, informal markets are often crucial for governance outcomes and need consideration. As such, clarifying tenure in sovereignty-sensitive ways is important, as are innovative ways for inclusive “glocal” decision-making. Lastly, new technologies, big data and citizens’ capacities are identified as potent innovation opportunities, for making global dependencies between consumption, production and deforestation visible and holding players accountable across the value chains.
Impact of land use and land cover changes on carbon storage in rubber dominated tropical Xishuangbanna, South West China
Land use and land cover (LULC) play a significant role in carbon regulation. South-China accounts for ~65% of China’s carbon sink. In Xishuangbanna (South-China), rubber is expanding rapidly creating an urgent need to understand and monitor LULC change and how spatial variation affects carbon storage (CS). This is vital for the formation and implementation of better land use management practices. We studied LULC changes of 22-year period; addressing how these changes have affected the CS. We quantified LULC changes between1988 and 2010 using remote sensing methods and calculated CS changes using InvEST. Results showed that between 1988 and 2010, the rate of deforestation accelerated to 203.2 km2 y−1 and ~23% of forest were lost. Conversion of natural forest to rubber was responsible for 78% of this deforestation. Rubber expansion rate was 153.4 km2 y−1. Changes to LULC drove a temporal CS reduction 0.223 Tg C/km2. Local stakeholders have strong economic interest in converting land to more profitable plantations. Government efforts is required to control land conversion through new policies and incentives to retain natural forest. Assessment of specific potential land use change will be required to avoid promoting the conversion of high carbon storage land uses to low carbon storage land uses.
Relevance of secondary tropical forest for landscape restoration
Tropical Secondary Forests (SFs) are vulnerable forest systems growing in areas that have been subject to unsustainable human activities leading to deforestation. SFs account for swathes of tropical forest landscapes that have lost their capacity to provide a high level of goods and services. They are also located in highly dynamic and human-pressured landscapes and are vulnerable to natural and human-induced catastrophic events, such as hurricanes or fires. Without appropriate silvicultural management to increase their economic value and restore their ecological functions, they often become degraded and are sometimes cleared for more short-term economically productive activities. Given the increasing demand for tropical timber in recent decades that will continue in the near future, we suggest that active restoration geared towards wood production is an opportunity for SF conservation. Promoting sustainable wood production -i.e. associated with other environmental services- in these disturbed forest ecosystems is also a way to reduce logging pressure on the remaining intact primary tropical forests, indeed, this may be the most important reason to enhance active restoration aimed at wood production in tropical SFs worldwide. Future research in forest ecology and management should produce experimental evidence of enhanced production of wood and ecosystem services in SFs through appropriate silvicultural experimentations.
Central Africa Humid Tropics Transect Sentinel Landscape (CAFHUT): A stocktaking pilot study [Revised Edition, May 2021]
Revised edition, May 2021. This publication is part of the Sentinel Landscape network initiative established in eight sites around the world representative of widely different biophysical and socioeconomic contexts. Here we present and summarize the results of the research and baseline studies carried out in the Central Africa Humid Tropics Transect sentinel landscape, four sites in Cameroon indicative of the African humid forest ecological zone.
Forest governance in DRC
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has implemented Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+), a process that requires inclusive decision making and accountability. Our research analyses the participation of policy actors in DRC by asking: (1) Who is involved in national REDD+ policy making and what is their interest in participating in core policy events? (2) What level of participation do the different political actors have in core policy events? (3) To what extent do the outcomes, of REDD+ policy events incorporate different preferences of policy actors? We found that although actors’ interest in REDD+ policy events have increased over time, their concerns have rarely been taken into account in decision-making processes. The presence of local civil society and indigenous group organizations is weak while international organizations play a major role in the REDD+ arena. REDD+ is treated as a project rather than being embedded in national politics.
Assessing Land Use and Land Cover Change and Farmers’ Perceptions of Deforestation and Land Degradation in South-West Côte d’Ivoire, West Africa
Deforestation and land degradation remain two major economic and environmental threats in Côte d’Ivoire. This study assessed land use and land cover (LULC) change and farmers’ perceptions of the drivers and effects of deforestation and land degradation in south-western Côte d’Ivoire. We used remotely sensed data to determine LULC change trends, and a household survey to collect farmers’ perceptions of deforestation and land degradation. A total of 411 households were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and the focus group discussions involved 25 farmers. Landsat image analysis reported a drastic LULC change and a conversion of forestlands into agriculture from 1987 to 2015 at a rate of 1.44%/year and 3.44%/year for dense forests and degraded forests, respectively. The household survey revealed that the major causes of deforestation perceived by farmers included population growth (79.3%), extensive agriculture (72.9%), migration (54.2%) and logging (47.7%). Land degradation evolved, from a shortened fallow period (46.7%) and an inappropriate application of inputs (31.4%). The perceived major effects linked to deforestation encompassed land degradation (70.6%), loss of biodiversity (63.8%), global warming (56.9%) and loss of livelihood assets (54.3%). Therefore, this study recommends participatory landscape planning, reforestation and capacity building of stakeholders for sustainable intensification of the production systems to reduce LULC challenges for enhanced productive and protective functions of remaining forests.