Historically, the expansion of soy plantations has been a major driver of land-use/cover change (LUCC) in Brazil. While a series of recent public actions and supply-chain commitments reportedly curbed the replacement of forests by soy, the expansion of the agricultural commodity still poses a considerable threat to the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Identification of areas under high risk of soy expansion is thus paramount to assist conservation efforts in the region. We mapped the areas suitable for undergoing transition to soy plantations in the Legal Amazon with a machine-learning approach adopted from the ecological modeling literature. Simulated soy expansion for the year 2014 exhibited favorable validation scores compared to other LUCC models. We then used our model to simulate how potential future infrastructure improvements would affect the 2014 probabilities of soy occurrence in the region. In addition to the 2.3 Mha of planted soy in the Legal Amazon in 2014, our model identified another 14.7 Mha with high probability of soy conversion in the region given the infrastructure conditions at that time. Out of those, pastures and forests represented 9.8 and 0.4 Mha, respectively. Under the new infrastructure scenarios simulated, the Legal Amazonian area under high risk of soy conversion increased by up to 2.1 Mha (14.6%). These changes led to up to 11.4 and 51.4% increases in the high-risk of conversion areas of pastures and forests, respectively. If conversion occurs in the identified high-risk areas, at least 4.8 Pg of CO2 could be released into the atmosphere, a value that represents 10 times the total CO2 emissions of Brazil in 2014. Our results highlight the importance of targeting conservation policies and enforcement actions, including the Soy Moratorium, to mitigate future forest cover loss associated with infrastructure improvements in the region.
Tag: deforestation
Assessing impacts on ecosystem services under various plausible oil palm expansion scenarios in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia
Key messages
- The land-use change caused by oil palm expansion results in adverse impacts on ecosystem functions and services provided by natural forests.
- This study assesses the impacts of oil palm expansion on key ecosystem services and analyzes the trade-offs among ecosystem services under four plausible future land-use scenarios in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia: business as usual, moratorium, zero gross deforestation and sustainable intensification.
- A trade-off between carbon benefit and habitat quality was observed in the area with low carbon stock. Providing some habitat quality in areas of oil palm expansion enhanced the carbon benefit.
- A synergy between carbon sequestration and water yield was evident due to oil palm expansion on Dry Rice Land with Mixed Scrub under the zero gross deforestation scenario.
- Among the four plausible LULC scenarios, zero gross deforestation is the most desirable option for the study area in Central Kalimantan.
- A successful implementation of zero gross deforestation requires a review of the forest moratorium to encompass all forest types, a clear land-use policy strategy and a detailed land-use plan involving all jurisdictions and engagement of stakeholders.
- Sustainable intensification is the second-best land use and land cover option for oil palm expansion with an assumed average yield enhancement to 5 tCPO ha-1 yr-1. However, enhancing yield in smallholder farms by 78% is highly challenging. It may be achievable by providing appropriate and adequate technical and management supports to smallholder farms and by ensuring off-take markets for oil palm produced by smallholders.
Implementing commitments in the Indonesian palm oil sector
A policy network analysis of the palm oil sector in Indonesia: What sustainability to expect?
The palm oil sector has been targeted by NGOs for its alleged negative environmental and social impacts. In this regard Indonesia represents a major challenge because it is home to some of the largest tropical forests in the world. A recent wave of corporate sustainability commitments peaked with the New York Declaration on Forests in September 2014, which emerged amidst the development of other standards and initiatives toward sustainable palm oil production. This process has made this field very complex, especially in Indonesia. The present study aims at clarifying the positions taken by the various stakeholders and assesses the level of political support and the functioning of policy networks.
Results from our Policy Network Analysis based on the survey of 59 institutions representing all types of stakeholders (e.g. government, corporate, NGO) at all levels (international, Indonesian and local) show that standards and initiatives for sustainability have contrasting visibility and impact among stakeholders. In this context, RSPO stands as a reference, with the efforts by the Government of Indonesia to promote its own standard with ISPO yet to gain traction. While IPOP was a well-appreciated initiative and a symbol of zero-deforestation commitments, opposition to it by the government and conflicting interests have resulted in its disbandment. Overall, the lack of progress for sustainable palm oil practices on the ground, in the view of respondents, seems to be caused by political and legal barriers rather than technical challenges or economic losses at a country level.
Greening the Dark Side of Chocolate: A Qualitative Assessment to Inform Sustainable Supply Chains
Despite the plethora of discourse about how sustainable development should be pursued, the production of agricultural commodities is held responsible for driving c. 80% of global deforestation. Partially as a response, the private sector has made commitments to eliminate deforestation, but it is not yet clear what factors these commitments should take into account to effectively halt deforestation while also contributing to broader sustainable development. In the context of private sector commitments to zero-deforestation, this study characterizes the perceptions of different types of stakeholders along the cocoa and chocolate supply chain in order to determine the main challenges and solutions to encourage sustainable production. The main purpose is to understand the key factors that could facilitate a transition to a more sustainable supply while harmonizing the multiple actors’ interests. A qualitative thematic analysis of perceptions was conducted based on responses from 59 interviews with different stakeholders along the cocoa and chocolate supply chain in six key producing and consuming countries. Thematic analysis of the responses revealed six main themes: (1) make better use of policies, regulations and markets to help promote sustainability; (2) improve information and data (e.g., impacts of climate change on cocoa) to inform sound interventions; (3) focus on the landscape rather than the farm-level alone and improve integration of supply chain actors; (4) promote better coordination between stakeholders and initiatives (e.g., development assistance projects and corporate sustainability efforts); (5) focus on interdependent relationships between social, environmental and economic dimensions to achieve sustainable development; and (6) engage with the private sector. The study shows the importance of identifying different stakeholder priorities in order to design solutions that accommodate multiple interests. It also emphasizes the need to improve coordination and communication between stakeholders and instruments in order to address the three different dimensions of sustainability in a synergistic manner, considering the interactions from production of raw material to end consumer.
Sustainable development of the palm oil sector in the Congo Basin: The need for a regional strategy involving smallholders and informal markets
Key messages
- The Congo Basin is rich in biodiversity and stores an estimated 25%–30% of the world’s tropical forest carbon stocks. As agricultural land becomes increasingly scarce in Southeast Asia, and regulatory pressures continue to intensify, the Congo Basin could become the next frontier for oil palm expansion. Most of the roughly 280 million hectares (Mha) of additional land suitable for oil palm in the Congo Basin are found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (60%), Cameroon (11%) and the Republic of Congo (10%).
- Many heavily forested countries in the Congo Basin are setting national targets to increase production to meet national and regional demands. Land area allocated to oil palm increased by 40% in the Congo Basin and five additional top-producing countries in Africa between 1990 and 2017. Without intervention, future production increases in the region will likely come from expansion rather than intensification due to low crop and processing yields, possibly at the expense of forest.
- Sustainability strategies initiated by companies and aimed at certifying palm oil mills are unlikely to be effective at curbing deforestation in the Congo Basin. Smallholder farmers are an engine of growth in the region’s palm oil sector, and recent evidence suggests they are actively clearing forest to expand. Because of the proliferation of non-industrial processing facilities (artisanal mills), a substantial fraction of the palm oil produced by smallholders never passes through a company’s jurisdiction. Smallholders are also disadvantaged by power imbalances and limited access to technical and financial resources. Including smallholders in sustainability strategies offers opportunities to achieve multisectoral goals.
- Recommendations to improve the sustainability of the palm oil sector in the Congo Basin include (1) improving access to finance for smallholders and non-industrial mill managers; (2) implementing policies to safeguard natural resources and facilitate access to appropriate market opportunities that offer incentives to prevent future deforestation; (3) intensifying production by replanting aging plantations, rehabilitating abandoned plantations with disease-resistant and high-yielding varieties, and increasing fertilization, without further expansion into high conservation value or high carbon stock forest areas; and (4) improving processing capacity and extraction rates by upgrading mill technologies. Sustainable palm oil development in the Congo Basin will require careful consideration of the governance, institutional, environmental and socioeconomic factors that underpin the complex regional supply chains.
Optimization of Crude Palm Oil Fund to Support Smallholder Oil Palm Replanting in Reducing Deforestation in Indonesia
Smallholders play a significant role in the Indonesian palm oil industry. They cultivate more than 40% of the total plantation area, and their production contributes to the national revenue. However, despite their significant role, smallholders continue to face crop management, financial and environmental challenges. The fact that some smallholder plantations are illegally located in state forestland poses challenges for smallholders as regards getting access to finance, improving yields, and obtaining sustainable certification. Government policy on the collection of levies from exported crude palm oil (CPO fund) and its derivative products provides smallholders the opportunity to replant and support their sustainable practices, thereby reducing deforestation. This paper discusses how fiscal incentives of the CPO fund may have been optimized to prioritize these outcomes. We should prioritize the use of the fund not only to support smallholder replanting, but also to clarify their land tenure rights, so that they could get access to sustainable certification and financial institutions. It is also recommended that funds be allocated to subsidize loan interest to the bank and build productive capital during the grace period. These efforts have to be accompanied by building and improving smallholder databases and strengthening local government.
Oil palm expansion in the Brazilian Amazon: The challenge of reconciling conservation and development
The recent Amazon fire crises and the emerging anti-environmental governmental rhetoric across some important countries have again brought to the fore discussions on tropical forests, climate change, and sustainable development. It is more crucial than ever to find viable models that both protect forests and stimulate socioeconomic development as intertwined goals in tropical landscapes. Among the proposals to address that aim–for example, payments for ecosystem services, forest and landscape restoration, and sustainable forest management–sustainable agricultural production has assumed a vital relevance. This dissertation focuses on that relevance. More precisely, it discusses the extent to which sustainable oil palm expansion can be a viable option to reconcile conservation and development in the Amazon. The book’s eight chapters analyze in great detail an expansion process shaped by a unique governance context characterized by robust measures to prevent the deforestation of primary forests and to use degraded lands, and to support the inclusion of smallholder farmers in the business through contract farming schemes. It does so grounded in extensive fieldwork activities carried out between 2014 and 2015 in the Amazonian state of Pará, where the bulk of Brazil’s agricultural investments are located. Brazil has achieved remarkable outcomes in terms of preventing deforestation and stimulating a fairer and more equitable distribution of benefits. This shows that oil palm expansion is not necessarily associated with devastating consequences, such as those observed in Southeast Asia. Yet, the Brazilian model does have some important limitations in terms of inclusivity and viability, which questions its socio-environmental orientation in the long run. By discussing the observed merits and failures, the case study presented here provides an interesting example of the existing challenges and dilemmas encountered when attempting to align agricultural development, poverty alleviation, and forest conservation. As such, this dissertation contributes to global debates on agricultural sustainability governance, smallholder farming, and rural development in general.
Beyond zero deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: Progress and remaining challenges to sustainable cattle intensification
Key messages
- A governance approach, combining public policy and private initiatives was effective in slowing down deforestation, but was unable to support a transition to more sustainable production systems.
- New technical intensification models must be identified for low-productivity systems in degraded lands, adapted to the biophysical and sociotechnical conditions of the Amazonian landscapes.
- Multiple constraints inhibit progress toward sustainable intensification of cattle ranching, and reversing them requires that all such constraints be addressed in a coordinated way.
- Designing options that work for all stakeholders, and monitoring and verifying progress of territories toward sustainability is essential to support current public policies and private initiatives.
Impact of a Media Campaign on Consumers’ Purchasing Intentions of Legal Timber in Cameroon
Illegal logging is a key driver of deforestation in tropical countries and benefits a large number of stakeholders, including urban domestic buyers. Changing the latter’s purchasing behavior could produce significant shifts in the illegal trade market. Based on survey data (n= 463), this paper assesses the impact of a media campaign on consumers’ purchase intentions for legal timber and wooden furniture in Yaoundé and analyses the underlying psychological mechanisms. Combining covariate matching and mediation analysis, we found a significant positive effect of the media campaign on the declared intention to purchase legally-sourced timber and the mediation effect of two out of three precursors of the theory of planned behaviors, namely attitude and subjective norms. This study provides critical inputs to frame future media campaign messages and, by demonstrating some consumers’ interest in legal timber, to strengthen the domestic legitimacy of policies such as the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade.