Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) is carried out with the objective of regaining ecological functions and enhancing human well-being through intervention in degrading ecosystems. However, uncertainties and risks related to FLR make it difficult to predict long-term outcomes and inform investment plans. We applied a Stochastic Impact Evaluation framework (SIE) to simulate returns on investment in the case of FLR interventions in a degraded dry Afromontane forest while accounting for uncertainties. We ran 10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation that projected FLR outcomes over a period of 25 years. Our simulations show that investments in assisted natural regeneration, enrichment planting, exclosure establishment and soil-water conservation structures all have a greater than 77% chance of positive returns. Sensitivity analysis of these outcomes indicated that the greatest threat to positive cashflows is the time required to achieve the targeted ecological outcomes. Value of Information (VOI) analysis indicated that the biggest priority for further measurement in this case is the maturity age of exclosures at which maximum biomass accumulation is achieved. The SIE framework was effective in providing forecasts of the distribution of outcomes and highlighting critical uncertainties where further measurements can help support decision-making. This approach can be useful for informing the management and planning of similar FLR interventions.
Tag: Decision-making
Bringing evidence to bear for negotiating tradeoffs in sustainable agricultural intensification using a structured stakeholder engagement process
Sustainable agricultural intensification (SAI) has the potential to increase food security without detrimental effects on ecosystem services. However, adoption of SAI practices across sub-Saharan Africa has not reached transformational numbers to date. It is often hampered by lack of context-specific practices, sub-optimal understanding of tradeoffs and synergies among stakeholders, and lack of approaches that bring diverse evidence sources together with stakeholders to collectively tackle complex problems. In this study, we asked three interconnected questions: (i) What is the accessibility and use of evidence for SAI decision making; (ii) What tools could enhance access and interaction with evidence for tradeoff analysis; and (iii) Which stakeholders must be included? This study employed a range of research and engagement methods including surveys, stakeholder analysis, participatory trade-off assessments and co-design of decision dashboards to better support evidence-based decision making in Zambia, Tanzania and Ethiopia. At the inception, SAI evidence was accessible and used by less than half of the decision makers across the three countries and online dashboards hold promise to enhance access. Many of the stakeholders working on SAI were not collaborating and tradeoff analysis was an under-utilized tool. Structured engagement across multiple stakeholder groups with evidence is critical.
Are risk preferences consistent across elicitation procedures? A field experiment in Congo basin countries
We compare individual risk preferences elicited through a classic Ordered Lottery Selection (OLS) procedure with five gambles, and an extended procedure composed of nine gambles. The research question is about the consistency of the risk preferences across these two elicitation variants. We implemented a field experiment with 1002 rural households in the Congo Basin from December 2013 to July 2014. We show that 1/3 of the sample is extremely risk averse regardless of the procedure. We found inconsistencies in risk preferences elicited across procedures. Indeed, 45.71% are characterized by inconsistency of preferences, either weak (34.53%) or strong (11.18%); 42.81% of the sample exhibits consistent preferences and the remaining 11.48% of the sample – initially risk neutral in the classic procedure – is classified as risk loving in the extended procedure. Undereducation can be seen as the main driver of the strong inconsistency since the incremental change brought about by the attainment of secondary school on the likelihood to remain consistent is ten times greater than the other considered drivers.
Revisiting the REDD+ experience in Indonesia: Lessons from national, subnational and local implementation
Key messages
- In Indonesia, early involvement and support for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has led to numerous achievements, but progress has been slower than anticipated.
- National and subnational REDD+ initiatives are susceptible to political turnover at each election cycle. To ensure its longevity, REDD+ needs to be embedded in national and regional laws, regulations, institutions and other state devices.
- REDD+ institutionalization in Indonesia has focused on technicalities rather than on directly addressing socioeconomic and political drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. The rate of deforestation has decelerated enough to result in two REDD+ payments. However, transformational change in the forestry and broader land-use sector has not progressed far enough.
- REDD+ is inherently multilevel and multisectoral. However, much information, action, knowledge exchange and decision making on REDD+ is concentrated within relatively few organizations. Transformational change requires that other stakeholders and sectors that impact forests get involved.
Inclusive and adaptive business models for climate-smart value creation
Climate-smart business models target multiple Sustainable Development Goals by fostering agricultural productivity, supporting farm and farmer livelihood resilience, and encouraging climate mitigation. While many business models (cl)aiming to create climate-smart value already exist both in agricultural development and business practice, little scholarly attention has so far been directed toward their functioning. In this paper, we argue that business models need to be inclusive and adaptive to generate climate-smart value equitably for all stakeholders involved and sustainably over time. Inclusivity involves not only providing the poor at the Bottom-of-the-Pyramid (BoP) with access to resources (e.g. finance, technology, access to markets) in business models but also, according to some scholars, with guaranteeing their representation in decision-making over the use of these resources. Adaptability entails the capacity to smoohtly adjust structures and processes of enterprise-BoP partnerships that underlie business models. We suggest that building inclusive and adaptive climate-smart business models is non-trivial work which, in the future, will require rapid cycles of collective experimentation and reflection between decision-makers in climate-smart business models and researchers studying them. © 2020 The Authors
Decision dashboard
An information note to describe what decision dashboards are and how they can be used to assist in evidence based decision making and planning.
The proposed co-management plan for fisheries in the North Rupununi Wetlands: what does it mean?
This brochure represents a simplified version of the Co-management Plan for Fisheries in the North Rupununi. It presents the vision on how communities would like to see their fishing grounds managed in collaboration with the government Fisheries Department.The SWM Programme is a major international initiative that aims to improve the conservation and sustainable use of wildlife in forest, savannah and wetland ecosystems. It is funded by the European Union with co-funding from the French Facility for Global Environment (FFEM) and the French Development Agency (AFD). Projects are being piloted and tested with governments, national partners and communities in 16 participating countries. The initiative is coordinated by a dynamic consortium of four partners, namely the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Center for International Forestry Research and World Agroforestry (CIFOR-ICRAF), the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD) and the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS).
خطوط توجيهية تكميلية — التصدي للحراجة والحراجة الزراعية في خطط التكيف الوطنية
ﯾﻘﺪم ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻨﺸﻮر ﺑﻌﻨﻮان ”اﻟﺘﺼﺪي ﻟﻠﺤﺮاﺟﺔ واﻟﺤﺮاﺟﺔ اﻟﺰراﻋﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻄﻂ اﻟﺘﻜﯿﻒ اﻟﻮطﻨﯿﺔ: اﻟﺨﻄﻮط اﻟﺘﻮﺟﯿﮭﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻜﻤﯿﻠﯿﺔ“ إرﺷﺎدات ﺗﻘﻨﯿﺔ ﺑﺸﺄن دﻣﺞ اﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎت واﻟﺤﺮاﺟﺔ اﻟﺰراﻋﯿﺔ واﻷﺷﺠﺎر ﻓﻲ ﺻﯿﺎﻏﺔ ﺧﻄﻂ اﻟﺘﻜﯿﻒ اﻟﻮطﻨﯿﺔ وﺗﻨﻔﯿﺬھﺎ. ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻌﻰ إﻟﻰ إﺣﺎطﺔ ﺻﺎﻧﻌﻲ اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺎت واﻟﻤﻮظﻔﯿﻦ اﻟﺤﻜﻮﻣﯿﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺆوﻟﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺨﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻜﯿﻒ اﻟﻮطﻨﯿﺔ وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎﺗﮭﺎ، وﻛﺬﻟﻚ أﺻﺤﺎب اﻟﻤﺼﻠﺤﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻨﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎت واﻟﺠﮭﺎت اﻟﻔﺎﻋﻠﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى اﻟﻤﻌﻨﯿﺔ، ﺑﺸﺄن اﺣﺘﯿﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻐﺎﺑﺎت واﻟﺤﺮاﺟﺔ اﻟﺰراﻋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ أﺟﻞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﺘﻜﯿﻒ، وإﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﺗﻜﯿﻒ اﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت واﻟﻘﻄﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﻔﺮﻋﯿﺔ واﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻷﺧﺮى.
يحشد المنشور مجموعة المعارف الحالية المتعلقة بإدارة الغابات وتقييمات لقابلية التأثر والتكيف مع تغير المناخ، بناءً على خبرة منظمة الأغذية والزراعة وبرنامج البحوث بشأن الغابات والأشجار والحراجة الزراعية التابع للفريق الاستشاري المعنى بالبحوث الزراعية الدولية. بغية تلبية احتياجات البلدان بشكل فعال، يعتمد المنشور أيضًا على إجراء تحليل لخطط التكيف الوطنية المنشورة بالفعل والوثائق المماثلة التي أعدتها البلدان المتقدمة أو السلطات دون الوطنية.
Towards more inclusive community landscape governance: Drivers and assessment indicators in northern Ghana
Community-based approaches to landscape governance are considered more legitimate, equitable, and inclusive ways to manage natural resources and more effective in achieving conservation and livelihood goals than centralised and top-down approaches. In Ghana, the Wildlife Division of the Forestry Commission devolved decision-making authority over natural resources through the Community Resource Management Area (CREMA) governance system. While there is a growing body of literature on the CREMA governance model, few studies have examined the inclusiveness of its decision-making processes. This study aims to fill this gap by identifying the drivers that hinder or foster the inclusiveness of community governance in the Western Wildlife Corridor of northern Ghana and developing a set of inclusivity assessment indicators. Based on data collected through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations, we found that several stakeholder groups remain at the margins of the CREMA governance system and feel excluded, particularly Fulani herders, women, and youth. Based on our findings and the literature, we present a set of assessment indicators for inclusive CREMA governance. However, these indicators are unlikely to be fully met because of persisting socio-cultural barriers and power asymmetries. We argue that measures such as capacity building, empowering marginalised social groups, promoting their participation in decision-making, and a bottom-up approach towards creating CREMAs are needed to improve the inclusiveness of CREMA governance. Beyond the CREMAs, the inclusivity indicators developed in this study have broad applicability to environmental and landscape governance.
The pluriversality of efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil over the past decade: An analysis of policy actors’ perceptions
Brazil offers a complex and unique example of tropical landscapes. The country has considerably decreased deforestation since 2004, but Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) is arguably under question, both as a concept and as a tool to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as deforestation levels have increased over the last five years. This article investigates how different policy actors have perceived REDD+ over time, how they have engaged in REDD+ efforts over the past decade, and how REDD+ implementation in Brazil should move forward accordingly. We analyzed qualitative data from semi-structured interviews and actors’ “stances”, i.e., their positions—with regards to key issues connected to REDD+ governance and its challenges—over three different time periods (Phase 1: 2010–2011, Phase 2: 2015–2016, and Phase 3: 2019), so as to identify the practical implications of these diverse interpretations. We argue that the way actors perceive REDD+ is intimately related to the way they interpret and assign meanings towards it and, in consequence, the way they coordinate REDD+-related practices and efforts. We focus on the link between perceptions and efforts so as to comprehend the relevance that different interpretations have to both the concept and implementation of REDD+ in Brazil. Our analysis concentrates on the potential to improve the coordination and integration of REDD+ implementation and diverse actors’ efforts with regards to REDD+ activities. Results suggest that actors’ perceptions of REDD+ generated a plurality of meanings, highlighting a range of dialectical and ontological interactions that have, in turn, resulted in multiple REDD+ interpretations. Findings highlight that different actors have the same interests when it comes to their organizational efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, suggesting that there is room for a better coordination of efforts towards this end, as well as increased collaboration.