Follow the money: Can REDD+ finance compete with established and emerging land investments in Mai-Ndombe, Democratic Republic of Congo?

Climate finance is often considered an avenue of transformational change to address deforestation. However, financial dynamics influencing forests extend beyond climate related initiatives; forest landscapes are subject to a myriad of actors and interests. This paper examines if and how REDD+ finance can lead to transformative decisions in a complex political landscape of competing land uses, interests, and financial flows in Mai-Ndombe, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We employ a critical global political economy perspective to investigate inequality within global forest governance. We use a telecoupling framing combined with open-source research methods to examine public information and databases on company ownership and structures, to capture flows of finance and commodities. Our study demonstrates that, in Mai-Ndombe, climate finance incentives have limited influence in the presence of dominant interests and investments in extractive activities; particularly when mining, livestock, timber, and carbon concessions overlap, and oil exploration permits are in use by state and private sector actors. REDD+ strategies in the DRC inadvertently reinforce historical inequalities by focusing on local interventions; this overlooks persistent power relations that are visible in discursive practices, financial flows, and incentive structures centering around extractive land uses. The methods and data in this paper provide insights into how finance and investments in both climate change mitigation and industrial land use are driving land-use change and inadvertently reinforcing inequality. We encourage funders, policymakers, and researchers at the intersection of climate and forests to move beyond oversimplified narratives of who is to blame for deforestation, and instead trace the financial flows to examine who actually benefits.

Allometric equations and carbon sequestration potential of mango (Mangifera indica) and avocado (Persea americana) in Kenya

Reliable biomass estimates are needed to quantify the climate benefits of fruit trees and include them in landscape restoration and international commitments such as the Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreements. Fruit trees are widespread in smallholder farming systems, where they provide income, nutrition benefits, and other products and ecosystem services with Mangifera indica (mango) and Persea americana (avocado) being the most popular in East Africa region. However, their contribution to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration and reduction in greenhouse gas emission has not been explored because of a lack of allometric equations to quantify their biomass accurately. This study developed allometric equations from data collected on 51 mango trees and 40 avocado trees harvested in Makueni and Kiambu Counties in Kenya, respectively. Allometric equation using mean diameter of primary branches (µDPB) or diameter at breast height (DBH) as the predictor variable provided better predictions for mango and avocado, with a low mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 28.8 % and 18.4 %, respectively. From an inventory of 23 plots in Makueni (total area = 4.4 ha) and 36 plots in Kiambu (total area = 14.42 ha), aboveground biomass in mango trees was estimated to be 22.3 ± 6.3 Mg ha1 and 20.6 ± 5.4 Mg ha1, respectively. Much of the biomass was found in trees located in homesteads and orchards. Allometric equations developed in this study will support the quantification of carbon stocks for projects aimed at generating carbon credits by including fruit trees in the landscape.

Agroforestry's contribution to livelihoods and carbon sequestration in East Africa: A systematic review

Agroforestry is a powerful practice for sustainable and regenerative intensification because it promotes multifunctional landscapes that deliver ecological functions that contribute to livelihoods, land productivity, biodiversity conservation, and other ecosystem services. Despite a large body of literature on agroforestry in East Africa, a systematic understanding of its livelihood benefits and contribution to carbon sequestration is still lacking. A systematic review was used to provide a quantitative and qualitative synthesis of available evidence and knowledge gap from 185 publications that met the selection criteria regarding the contribution of agroforestry to livelihoods (n = 152) and carbon sequestration (n = 43) in East Africa. The main livelihood benefits include fodder, food, firewood and income, reported in over 70, 63, 56 and 40 publications, respectively. These and other benefits diversify livelihoods of rural communities and act as safety nets in times of climate shocks. Agroforestry systems in East Africa stock an average of 24.2 ± 2.8 Mg C ha1 in biomass and 98.8 ± 12.2 Mg C ha1 in the soil. Much of the aboveground carbon is held in homegardens (34.3 ± 7.9 Mg C ha1), perennial tree-crop systems (29.9 ± 12.7 Mg C ha1) and trees on boundaries (26.7 ± 14.1 Mg C ha1). Empirical studies are needed for better understanding of belowground carbon in agroforestry and emission of greenhouse gases in different agroforestry practices. A smaller number of studies reported income from sale of carbon credits, suggesting a gap in the development of science regarding carbon rights, land tenure, tree tenure rights, and the potential impact of climate change on the growing niches of tree species in the region. The results show that agroforestry is a powerful climate adaptation and mitigation solution as it can increase household resilience and sequesters significant amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

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