Species distribution modeling has become increasingly important as climate change drives significant habitat shifts in plant and animal species, particularly those that provide essential ecosystem goods and services. One such species is the African rosewood tree (Pterocarpus erinaceus), which faces severe threats in sub-Saharan Africa due to habitat loss and anthropogenic pressures, while its distribution patterns and ecological requirements remain incompletely understood. Naturally occurring in various savanna ecosystems, the species has suffered considerable population declines over recent decades. This study employs ensemble modeling to predict both current and future distribution potential for P. erinaceus in Burkina Faso, incorporating 54 environmental variables to assess habitat suitability under projected climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Using greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and 8.5, along with general circulation models CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-CC, researchers evaluated the species’ vulnerability to climate change. Additionally, a network of protected areas in Burkina Faso was analyzed to determine their role in conservation efforts. Key environmental factors influencing P. erinaceus distribution include isothermality (31%), minimum temperature of the coldest month (31%), soil pH at a depth of 0–5 cm (11%), silt content at 60–100 cm (9.2%), and precipitation during the warmest quarter (8%). Under current climate conditions, highly suitable habitats span approximately 129,695 km², covering 47% of Burkina Faso. However, projections indicate a significant decline in suitable habitat, with potential losses of up to 61% under future climate scenarios. Given these findings, urgent conservation measures are necessary to safeguard P. erinaceus within its native range. This study provides valuable insights for land managers, helping them prioritize conservation areas and avoid introducing the species into unsuitable environments unless appropriate management strategies are implemented.
Tag: climate effect
Disentangling the effects of atmospheric CO2 and climate on intrinsic water-use efficiency in South Asian tropical moist forest trees
Due to the increase in atmospheric CO2concentrations, the ratio of carbon fixed by assimilation to water lost by transpiration through stomatal conductance (intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE) shows a long-term increasing trend globally. However, the drivers of short-term (inter-annual) variability in iWUE of tropical trees are poorly understood. We studied the inter-annual variability in iWUE of three South Asian tropical moist forest tree species (Chukrasia tabularis A.Juss., Toona ciliata M. Roem. and Lagerstroemia speciosa L.) derived from tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) in response to variations of environmental conditions. We found a significantly decreasing trend in carbon discrimination (13C) and an increasing trend in iWUE in all the three species, with a species-specific long-term trend in intercellular CO2concentration (Ci). Growing season temperatures were the main driver of inter-annual variability of iWUE in C. tabularis and L. speciosa, whereas previous year temperatures determined the iWUE variability in T. ciliata. Vapor pressure deficit was linked with iWUE only in C. tabularis. Differences in shade tolerance, tree stature and canopy position might have caused this species-specific variation in iWUE response to climate. Linear mixed effect modeling successfully simulated iWUE variability, explaining 41-51% of the total variance varying with species. Commonality analysis revealed that temperatures had a dominant influence on the inter-annual iWUE variability (64-77%) over precipitation (7-22%) and atmospheric CO2concentration (3-6%). However, the long-term variations in iWUE were explicitly determined by the atmospheric CO2increase (83-94%). Our results suggest that the elevated CO2and concomitant global warming might have detrimental effects on gas exchange and other physiological processes in South Asian tropical moist forest trees.