Assessing impact of land-use changes on carbon stock dynamics in coastal mangrove ecosystem in Bali Island, Indonesia

Indonesia has more than 3 million ha of mangrove forests along its coastal islands, play a significant role as one of the largest global blue carbon storages for an estimated 3.14 billion tons in 2020. However, this mangrove ecosystem is under serious threat with 6% of annual forest loss recorded due to the conversion of various land-use changes. Bali has 2207 ha of intact mangrove forest and has the potential to store a large amount of carbon pool, at the same time Bali serves as the center of tourism activity in Indonesia which raises a challenge to maintain its sustainability. This study aims to estimate the dynamics of carbon storage in Bali island using spatial and temporal data generated from satellite imagery (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2) and GIS modeling. We analyzed the distribution of mangroves forest from the past and present to understand the threat from land-use change and modeling the future scenario using InVEST. The model will predict the dynamics of carbon stock from present, past, and future values to be assessed and evaluated under development scenarios. Assessing and quantifying the amount of carbon stored in mangrove ecosystem is fundamental in the context of climate change and development of sustainable mitigation programs.

Grazing exclosures increase soil organic carbon stock at a rate greater than “4 per 1000” per year across agricultural landscapes in Northern Ethiopia

The establishment of grazing exclosures is widely practiced to restore degraded agricultural lands and forests. Here, we evaluated the potential of grazing exclosures to contribute to the”4 per 1000” initiative by analyzing the changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and sequestration (SCS) rates after their establishment on degraded communal grazing lands in Tigray region of Ethiopia. We selected grazing areas that were excluded from grazing for 5 to 24 years across the three agroecological zones of the region and used adjacent open grazing lands (OGLs) as control. Soil samples were collected from two depths (0-15 cm and 15-30 cm) and SOC and aboveground C stocks were quantified in both exclosures and OGLs. The mean SOC stock and SCS rate in exclosures (0-30 cm) were 31 Mg C ha-1 and 3 Mg C ha-1 year-1, which were respectively 166% and 12% higher than that in the OGLs, indicating a positive restoration effect of exclosures on SOC storage. With increasing exclosure age, SOC stock and SCS rate increased in the exclosures but decreased in the OGLs. Higher SOC stock and SCS rate were recorded in 0-15 cm than in 15-30 cm. The relative (i.e., to the SOC stock in OGLs) rates of increase in SOC stocks (70-189‰ year-1) were higher than the 4‰ year-1 and were initially high due to low initial SOC stock but declined over time after a maximum value of SOC stock is reached. Factors such as aboveground biomass, altitude, clay content and precipitation promoted SOC storage in exclosures. Our study highlights the high potential of exclosure for restoring SOC in the 0-30 cm soil depth at a rate greater than the 4‰ value. We argue that practices such as grazing exclosure can be promoted to achieve the climate change mitigation target of the “4‰” initiative.

Variation in aboveground biomass in forests and woodlands in Tanzania along gradients in environmental conditions and human use

Disturbed African tropical forests and woodlands have the potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. Therefore, there is a need to understand how carbon stocks of disturbed and recovering tropical forests are determined by environmental conditions and human use. In this case study, we explore how gradients in environmental conditions and human use determine aboveground biomass (AGB) in 1958 national forest inventory (NFI) plots located in forests and woodlands in mainland Tanzania. Plots were divided into recovering forests (areas recovering from deforestation for <25years) and established forests (areas consistently defined as forests for ≥25 years). This division, as well as the detection of year of forest establishment, was obtained through the use of dense satellite time series of forest cover probability. In decreasing order of importance, AGB in recovering forests unexpectedly decreased with water availability, increased with surrounding tree cover and time since establishment, and decreased with elevation, distance to roads, and soil phosphorus content. AGB in established forests unexpectedly decreased with water availability, increased with surrounding tree cover, and soil nitrogen content, and decreased with elevation. AGB in recovering forests increased by 0.4 Mg ha−1yr−1 during the first 20 years following establishment. Our results can serve as the basis of carbon sink estimates in African recovering tropical forests and woodlands, and aid in forest landscape restoration planning.

Carbon stocks in Miombo Woodlands: Evidence from over 50 years

Miombo woodlands are extensive dry forest ecosystems in central and southern Africa covering ≈2.7 million km2. Despite their vast expanse and global importance for carbon storage, the long-term carbon stocks and dynamics have been poorly researched. The objective of this paper is to present and summarize the evidence gathered on above- and belowground (root and soil) carbon stocks of miombo woodlands from the 1960s to mid-2018 through a review. We analyzed data to answer: (1) What is the range of aboveground and belowground carbon stocks found in miombo woodlands over the last six decades? (2) Are there differences in carbon stocks based on land-management categories? (3) Does precipitation influence aboveground carbon stocks in old-growth miombo? (4) Do differences in cover type, age and region influence carbon stocks? (5) How does previous land-use affect carbon stocks in re-growth miombo? A literature review protocol was used to identify 56 publications from which quantitative data on aboveground and soil carbon pools were extracted. We found that the mean aboveground carbon stock in old-growth miombo was 30.83±16.76 Mg C ha-1 (range 1.48—107.24 Mg ha-1). Old-growth miombo had an average calculated root carbon stock of 16.49±9.18 Mg C ha-1 (range 0.8—57.81 Mg ha-1). Soil carbon stocks in old-growth miombo varied widely, between 8.75 and 134.6 Mg C ha-1 while in re-growth miombo they varied between 10.73 and 52.2 Mg C ha-1. It must be noted these soil data are given only for information; they inconsistently refer to varying soil depths and are thus difficult to interpret. The wide range reported suggests a need for further studies, much more systematic in methods and reporting. Other limitations of the dataset include the lack of systematic sampling and lack of data in some countries, viz. Angola and Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Carbon Stocks from Peat Swamp Forest and Oil Palm Plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Conserving high carbon density tropical peat forests is one of the most cost-efficient strategies for climate change mitigation at national and global levels. Over past decades, large areas of tropical peat forests have been converted to oil palm plantation in Indonesia resulting in significant carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Here, we quantified the ecosystem carbon stocks in a total of six sites: two primary peat swamp forest sites, one secondary peat swamp forest site, and three young oil palm plantation sites in Tanjung Puting, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. We further determined potential carbon emissions from vegetation change due to peat swamp forest conversion to oil palm plantation. The mean total ecosystem carbon stock of primary and secondary peat swamp forests were 1770 ± 123 Mg C/ha and 533 ± 49 Mg C/ha, respectively. In contrast, the mean carbon stock of oil palm plantations was 759 ± 87 Mg C/ha or 42% of peat swamp forests. The ratio of the aboveground to belowground C stock was highest in secondary forest with an estimated value of 0.48, followed by primary forest at 0.19 and oil palm plantation at 0.04. Using a stock difference approach, we estimated potential carbon emissions from vegetation change resulting from the conversion of primary peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation of 640 ± 114 Mg CO2/ha. Finally, while restoring peatlands is important, avoiding peat conversion is imperative for Indonesia’s climate change mitigation effort.

Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes

Managing forests for climate change mitigation requires action by diverse stakeholders undertaking different activities with overlapping objectives and spatial impacts. To date, several forest carbon monitoring systems have been developed for different regions using various data, methods and assumptions, making it difficult to evaluate mitigation performance consistently across scales. Here, we integrate ground and Earth observation data to map annual forest-related greenhouse gas emissions and removals globally at a spatial resolution of 30 m over the years 2001–2019. We estimate that global forests were a net carbon sink of −7.6 ± 49 GtCO2e yr−1, reflecting a balance between gross carbon removals (−15.6 ± 49 GtCO2e yr−1) and gross emissions from deforestation and other disturbances (8.1 ± 2.5 GtCO2e yr−1). The geospatial monitoring framework introduced here supports climate policy development by promoting alignment and transparency in setting priorities and tracking collective progress towards forest-specific climate mitigation goals with both local detail and global consistency.

Environmental drivers of blue carbon burial and soil carbon stocks in mangrove forests

Mangroves can sequester and store massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere in the form of live plant and detrital biomass. Large amounts of autochthonous and allochthonous carbon (C) are also stored in sediments, where waterlogged and anoxic conditions inhibit microbial breakdown of organic matter. As a result, C buried in sediments of mangroves can remain there for millennia if left undisturbed, making them critical long-term C sinks. These high levels of aboveground and belowground C stocks have elevated the importance of mangroves and other blue carbon habitats in climate change mitigation and adaptation as well as efforts to protect and restore them. While methods have been developed for quantifying and reporting C stocks, the environmental drivers that influence the accumulation and retention of C stocks in blue carbon habitats are lesser known. Identifying important drivers of C accumulation in blue carbon habitats will increase conservation and restoration efforts so that they can continue to mitigate climate change by offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. Successful restoration and conservation activities can also be used in nationally determined commitments or in voluntary C markets. This chapter will explore the biological, biogeochemical, and geomorphological drivers that influence C burial in mangrove sediments.

Carbon Storage Potential of Silvopastoral Systems of Colombia

Nine Latin American countries plan to use silvopastoral practices—incorporating trees into grazing lands—to mitigate climate change. However, the cumulative potential of scaling up silvopastoral systems at national levels is not well quantified. Here, we combined previously published tree cover data based on 250 m resolution MODIS satellite remote sensing imagery for 2000–2017 with ecofloristic zone carbon stock estimates to calculate historical and potential future tree biomass carbon storage in Colombian grasslands. Between 2000 and 2017, tree cover across all Colombian grasslands increased from 15% to 18%, with total biomass carbon (TBC) stocks increasing from 0.41 to 0.48 Pg. The range in 2017 carbon stock values in grasslands based on ecofloristic zones (5 to 122 Mg ha−1) suggests a potential for further increase. Increasing all carbon stocks to the current median and 75th percentile levels for the respective eco-floristic zone would increase TBC stocks by about 0.06 and 0.15 Pg, respectively. Incorporated into national C accounting, such Tier 2 estimates can set realistic targets for silvopastoral systems in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) implementation plans in Colombia and other Latin American countries with similar contexts.

The role of predictive model data in designing mangrove forest carbon programs

Estimating baseline carbon stocks is a key step in designing forest carbon programs. While field inventories are resource-demanding, advances in predictive modeling are now providing globally coterminous datasets of carbon stocks at high spatial resolutions that may meet this data need. However, it remains unknown how well baseline carbon stock estimates derived from model data compare against conventional estimation approaches such as field inventories. Furthermore, it is unclear whether site-level management actions can be designed using predictive model data in place of field measurements. We examined these issues for the case of mangroves, which are among the most carbon dense ecosystems globally and are popular candidates for forest carbon programs. We compared baseline carbon stock estimates derived from predictive model outputs against estimates produced using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) three-tier methodological guidelines. We found that the predictive model estimates out-performed the IPCC’s Tier 1 estimation approaches but were significantly different from estimates based on field inventories. Our findings help inform the use of predictive model data for designing mangrove forest policy and management actions.

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