Tag: assessment

A Bayesian network framework for project cost, benefit and risk analysis with an agricultural development case study

Successful implementation of major projects requires careful management of uncertainty and risk. Yet such uncertainty is rarely effectively calculated when analysing project costs and benefits. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling framework to calculate the costs, benefits, and return on investment of a project over a specified time period, allowing for changing circumstances and trade-offs. The framework uses hybrid and dynamic BNs containing both discrete and continuous variables over multiple time stages. The BN framework calculates costs and benefits based on multiple causal factors including the effects of individual risk factors, budget deficits, and time value discounting, taking account of the parameter uncertainty of all continuous variables. The framework can serve as the basis for various project management assessments and is illustrated using a case study of an agricultural development project. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of tree growth in a Dipterocarp-based agroforest: a critical assessment

Growth records from three 1 ha plots of old-growth agroforest that have been monitored for 3–7 years in Sumatra are analysed. These plots of damar agroforest show typical multi-species composition. Tree species were grouped into five sets according to species ecology and average growth rate. Variables used in the multiple linear regression to predict average annual increment were crown form index, crown position (CP) index and initial girth. Crown form (CF) index is indicative both of photosynthetic capacity and of general vigour of the tree. Crown position index is indicative of the amount of light available to a tree. Results show that crown form is the most effective predictor of growth and that initial girth, and crown position only marginally increase the percentage of variance accounted for in most cases. About 40–50% of the variance is explained by using the above mentioned variables depending on the sites. The significance of these results is discussed and some methodological improvements to the monitoring techniques currently in use are suggested.

Farmer assessment and economic evaluation of shrub fallows in the Humid Lowlands of Cameroon

Food crop production in highly populated areas around major cities of the humid lowlands of Cameroon is highly dependent on a fallow system (two–four years duration) mainly of Chromolaena odorata. Where such fallows have been in use for some time, problems of soil fertility with declining crop yields and higher incidence of weeds were reported. Although improved fallows have been widely adopted in sub-humid zones, there is no evidence of successful adoption of agroforestry-based technologies for soil fertility improvement in the humid forest areas. In response, ICRAF has developed a short fallow system with Cajanus cajan for soil fertility improvement in the humid lowlands of West Africa. Farmers’ response to these cajanus fallows is positive. Benefits reported are higher crop yields after cajanus fallows compared to natural fallows, clearing of cajanus is easier and the shrubs shade out the weeds. Women particularly appreciate the technology for its low labour demand and for the fact that these shrubs can be planted on land with less secure tenure. Economic analysis of cajanus fallows compared to natural fallow over six years shows that cajanus fallows are profitable under most tested scenarios, both in terms of returns to land and to labour. It seems that improved fallows with Cajanus cajan are a good response to shortening natural fallows for households in the humid lowlands of Cameroon with land constraints. However, wider dissemination of the technology requires a targeted extension approach and adequate seed supply strategies, which should be based on joint efforts between farmers, extension services and research.

Applying Human-centered Design Methods in User Co-design of Decision Dashboards in IFAD ASAP Projects

This project has tailored a method of co-design from its initiation, lead by project staff and linked stakeholders in each country. The project facilitates stakeholder- and user-centered design of a ‘decision dashboard’ as a central location to view and interact with key information and data. The aim of the dashboard is to allow for the integration of evidence into decision-making processes at several scales, to assist in baseline assessments, targeting of interventions and monitoring of changes over time.

Use of microsatellite markers for the assessment of bambara groundnut breeding system and varietal purity before genome sequencing

Maximizing the research output from a limited investment is often the major challenge for minor and underutilized crops. However, such crops may be tolerant to biotic and abiotic stresses and are adapted to local, marginal, and low-input environments. Their development through breeding will provide an important resource for future agricultural system resilience and diversification in the context of changing climates and the need to achieve food security. The African Orphan Crops Consortium recognizes the values of genomic resources in facilitating the improvement of such crops. Prior to beginning genome sequencing there is a need for an assessment of line varietal purity and to estimate any residual heterozygosity. Here we present an example from bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea (L.) Verdc.), an underutilized drought tolerant African legume. Two released varieties from Zimbabwe, identified as potential genotypes for whole genome sequencing (WGS), were genotyped with 20 species-specific SSR markers. The results indicate that the cultivars are actually a mix of related inbred genotypes, and the analysis allowed a strategy of single plant selection to be used to generate non-heterogeneous DNA for WGS. The markers also confirmed very low levels of heterozygosity within individual plants. The application of a pre-screen using co-dominant microsatellite markers is expected to substantially improve the genome assembly, compared to a cultivar bulking approach that could have been adopted. © 2016 Published by NRC Research Press.

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