The Provision of Adequate Tree Seed Portfolios project (PATSPO) is addressing gaps in the supply of tree planting materials in Ethiopia by developing more effective tree seed delivery systems. One of PATSPO’s key efforts in its first (2017–2021) and second (2022–2026) phases has been the establishment of tree seed orchards to provide higher-quality seeds from a wide range of species. We describe this work here, mainly focusing on the breeding seedling orchards (BSOs) that have been planted, but also covering the seedling seed orchards (SSOs) established as another approach to boost seed supply. By the end of August 2025, the project had established 62 orchards – 27 BSOs and 35 SSOs – of which 33 were for native trees (of 13 species) and 29 for introduced trees (10 species). We also cover planned developments on tree seed production in Ethiopia that will take place under and/or be guided by PATSPO’s third phase, which began in April 2026 and will conclude at the end of 2029. Apart from summarizing this PATSPO work, the purpose of this report is to share insights from the project with the global tree planting community to improve the delivery of tree planting materials elsewhere. Key lessons gained from the project include the establishment of orchards early in any seed-delivery programme to demonstrate concrete outputs to stakeholders; balancing development goals with scientific progress in orchard activities; and fully integrating capacity building for partners and stakeholders in orchard operations. Additionally, since its commencement, PATSPO has received substantial backing from Norway’s International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI), which continues to support the project. This sustained support has enabled a coherent and functional orchard programme. This indicates the value of long-term donor engagement in achieving progress on tree seed supply.
Tag: Afforestation
Species-specific allometric models for estimating aboveground biomass and carbon stocks of plantation forests in northcentral Ethiopia
Plantation forests are crucial for landscape rehabilitation and carbon sequestration. However, the efficacy of these plantations in carbon sequestration in Ethiopia remains uncertain due to a lack of robust, species- and site-specific biomass estimation models. This study addresses this gap by developing and validating allometric models for estimating aboveground biomass (AGB) and carbon (C) stocks of plantation forests. Allometric models were developed using data from 69 harvested trees of three species: Eucalyptus globulus, Cupressus lusitanica, and Pinus patula. AGB was regressed against diameter at breast height (DBH) as the sole predictor, with stepwise inclusion of height (H), crown area and wood density. Model performance was evaluated using fit statistics, including Pseudo-R2 and mean prediction error (MPE). The model that incorporated both DBH and H as predictors provided the best fit (Pseudo-R2 > 0.90, p < 0.001) and achieved the lowest MPE (1.47–5.67%) across all species. The findings indicated a mean C stock of 121.6 Mg C ha−1 in the plantations studied. Our models provide valuable insights for forest management and improve the accuracy of AGB and C stock estimations in the study area and similar ecosystems. The estimated C stocks can serve as a benchmark for assessing future C dynamics.
Native tree species selection for landscape restoration: A Practical Guide Using GlobUNT
GlobalUsefulNativeTrees database (GlobUNT; https://patspo.shinyapps.io/GlobalUsefulTrees/) is an open-access decision-support tool designed to assist users in selecting site specific appropriate native tree species for conservation, agroforestry and restoration activities. This technical manual is designed to equip users with practical guidance for identifying and selecting appropriate native tree species for ecological restoration and agroforestry initiatives. As restoration efforts expand globally, selecting species that are ecologically suitable, locally adapted, and aligned with community needs is essential for achieving long-term environmental and socio-economic benefits. The purpose of this manual is to support evidence-based decision-making by translating scientific data into an accessible, user-friendly process for practitioners working in diverse restoration contexts. It is intended for a broad audience including restoration practitioners, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), government agencies, project planners, extension officers, and researchers involved in ecosystem restoration, agroforestry, climate adaptation, and sustainable land management. The manual should be used as both a learning resource and a practical reference. Users can follow it sequentially to build foundational knowledge or consult specific sections when generating species lists for real-world projects using community engagement and the GlobUNT tool.
Land area eligible for afforestation and reforestation within the Clean Development Mechanism: a global analysis of the impact of forest definition
Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown cover which can be set between 10 and 30%. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation and reforestation activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM-AR). In this paper, we present an analysis of the regional differences in land availability for CDM-AR projects. We then examine how the choice of a high or low threshold value for crown cover will affect the area available for CDM activities and how the limitations imposed by this element of the definition compares to other factors that are likely to limit CDM activities. Results represent a global analysis that included all countries not included in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol, and examined the effect on land availability of a range of crown cover thresholds ranging from 10–30%. Of the 140 Non-Annex One countries, 107 countries were found to have a potential for CDM-AR projects. Asia had the largest amount of combined area suitable for CDM-AR at the 10% crown cover threshold level. However, at 30%, South America had the greatest amount of land available, and a large change in available land area, which increased by almost five times compared to what was available at the 10% threshold. The area available in Africa increased by a factor of 5.5. Central America showed the largest increase, to almost 10 times more at the 30% threshold. By contrast, within Asia, the area increase was comparatively less, but still the area nearly doubled. Globally, a low threshold of 10% crown cover excluded almost 2/3 of the land identified that was eligible at 30%, over 5 million km2. The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. Protected areas account for 10–20% of the CDM-AR eligible area in most countries.
Climate change mitigation through afforestation / reforestation: a global analysis of hydrologic impacts
The implicit hydrologic dimensions of international efforts to mitigate climate change, specifically potential impacts of the Clean Development Mechanism-Afforestation/Reforestation (CDM-AR) provisions of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) on global, regional and local water cycles, are examined. The global impact of the redistribution of water use driven by agriculture and land use change, of which CDM-AR can be a contributing factor, is a major component of ongoing global change and climate change processes. If converted to forest, large areas deemed suitable for CDM-AR would exhibit increases in actual evapotranspiration (AET) and/or decreases in runoff. Almost 20% (144 Mha) of all suitable land showed little or no impact on runoff and another 28% (210 Mha) showed only moderate impact. About 27% (200 Mha) was in the highest impact class, exhibiting an 80-100% decrease in runoff, and prevalent in drier areas (based on Aridity Index (AI)), the semi-arid tropics, and in conversion from grasslands and subsistence agriculture. Significant impacts on local hydrologic cycles were evident, however large impacts were not predicted at regional or global scale due primarily to the current limit on carbon offset projects under the Kyoto Protocol. Predicted decreases in runoff ranged from 54% in drier areas to less than 5% in more humid areas, based on four case studies located across a range of biophysical conditions and project scenarios in Ecuador and Bolivia. Factors other than climate, e.g. upstream/ downstream position, were shown to be important in evaluating off-site impacts. This study demonstrates that it will become increasingly important to consider implications on local to regional water resources, and how the hydrologic dimension of CDM-AR impacts on issues of sustainability, local communities, and food security.
China’s forests: global lessons from market reforms (Chinese)
This book examines the experience of China’s forestry sector with respect to the full set of forest and nonforest policy reforrms introduced since 1978. The lessons of this book are important for China, and for the rest of the world as well. For China the analyses in each chapter provides rigorous evidence on those policies that have worked and on how well the have worked. The book consists of 10 chapters: 1. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B. Introduction and Appendix table: policy reform in China’s forestry; 2. Liu Dachang, Edmund, D. Devolution as a means of expanding local forest management in South China: lessons from the past 20 years; 3. Jinlong Liu, Landell-Mills, N. Taxes and fees in the Southern collective forest region; 4. Runsheng Yin. Central characteristics of reform: measures of the effects of improved property rights, a stable policy environment, and environmental protection; 5. Daowei Zhang. Policy reform and investment in forestry; 6. Rozelle, S., Jikun Huang, Benziger, V. Forest exploitation and protection in reform China: assessing the impacts of policy and economic growth; 7. Yaoqi Zhang, Uusivuori, J., Kuuluvainen, J., Kant, S. Deforestation and reforestation in Hainan: roles of markets and institution; 8. Ruiz-Perez, M., Belcher, B., Maoyi Fu, Xiaosheng Yang. Forestry, poverty, and rural development: perspectives from the bamboo sector; 9. Sayer, J.A., Changjin Sun. Impacts of policy reforms on forest environments and biodiversity; 10. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B., Runsheng Yin, Jinlong Liu. Conclusions and policy implications.
CIFOR’s research on reforestation
Potential for improved groundwater recharge and dry-season flows through forest landscape restoration on degraded lands in the tropics
As interest in tropical forest restoration accelerates, understanding its hydrological implications is increasingly urgent. While concerns persist that reforestation will reduce annual water yields—particularly in drier climates—we highlight conditions under which forest landscape restoration (FLR) can improve seasonal water availability, especially during the dry season. We examine the trade-off between increased vegetation water use (“pumping”) and enhanced infiltration and subsurface retention (“sponging”) following forestation of degraded lands, the recovery of vegetation’s ability to capture “occult” precipitation (fog) in specific coastal and montane settings, and the role of forest cover in enhancing moisture recycling and transport at multiple scales. A pan-tropical sensitivity analysis shows that in degraded landscapes with deep soils and pronounced rainfall seasonality, infiltration gains following forestation can offset or exceed evaporative losses, thereby supporting groundwater recharge and increasing dry-season flows in approximately 10% of cases, with an additional 8% showing near-neutral (slightly negative) outcomes. These findings challenge the assumption that forestation uniformly reduces water availability and underscore the need to prioritize dry-season flow recovery—rather than annual water yield—as a central hydrological goal of FLR. We call for trans-disciplinary research and long-term monitoring to inform forest restoration strategies, particularly in seasonally dry regions where water scarcity is most acute.
China’s forests: global lessons from market reforms
This book examines the experience of China’s forestry sector with respect to the full set of forest and nonforest policy reforrms introduced since 1978. The lessons of this book are important for China, and for the rest of the world as well. For China the analyses in each chapter provides rigorous evidence on those policies that have worked and on how well the have worked. The book consists of 10 chapters: 1. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B. Introduction and Appendix table: policy reform in China’s forestry; 2. Liu Dachang, Edmund, D. Devolution as a means of expanding local forest management in South China: lessons from the past 20 years; 3. Jinlong Liu, Landell-Mills, N. Taxes and fees in the Southern collective forest region; 4. Runsheng Yin. Central characteristics of reform: measures of the effects of improved property rights, a stable policy environment, and environmental protection; 5. Daowei Zhang. Policy reform and investment in forestry; 6. Rozelle, S., Jikun Huang, Benziger, V. Forest exploitation and protection in reform China: assessing the impacts of policy and economic growth; 7. Yaoqi Zhang, Uusivuori, J., Kuuluvainen, J., Kant, S. Deforestation and reforestation in Hainan: roles of markets and institution; 8. Ruiz-Perez, M., Belcher, B., Maoyi Fu, Xiaosheng Yang. Forestry, poverty, and rural development: perspectives from the bamboo sector; 9. Sayer, J.A., Changjin Sun. Impacts of policy reforms on forest environments and biodiversity; 10. Hyde, W.F., Jintao Xu, Belcher, B., Runsheng Yin, Jinlong Liu. Conclusions and policy implications.