Rubber planting and deforestation

Wang et al. used satellite observations and phenological signatures to estimate that planted rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) caused over 4 million hectares of deforestation since 1993. However, their methodology has been challenged for misclassifying tree cover loss as deforestation, including young regrowth, rubber gardens, and other plantations. Their validation approach was biased, with clustered sampling points disproportionately located in China and underrepresented in Indonesia, and excluded “non-forest” areas from accuracy checks. A reassessment using visual inspection of sub-metre imagery and Sentinel-2 time series found that actual deforestation linked to rubber since 2001 is closer to one-quarter of Wang et al.’s estimate. This reassessment also distinguished rubber monoculture from jungle rubber (mixed agroforestry), which constitutes a large share of regional rubber planting. The critique underscores the importance of objective sampling, complete validation, and nuanced land-cover definitions in policy-relevant deforestation assessments.

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