Making the European Union Green Deal Benefit the Environment Society of the European Union and ASEAN

This chapter offers a detailed examination of the European Union Deforestation Regulation, a pivotal policy that governs market access for key agricultural commodities and is reshaping trade relations between the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Focusing on exports such as palm oil, timber, and coffee from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, the analysis employs system dynamics modelling and scenario development. A central finding is the significant opportunity presented by the regulation’s 2020 deforestation cut-off date. This means the rule’s initial impact is likely narrow, affecting only about 1% of existing palm oil plantations. This limited-scale effect may be similar for other ASEAN commodities, suggesting most established producers will not face immediate, large-scale disruption. However, the chapter equally details substantive threats, including high costs for compliance, product monitoring, and institutional development, alongside risks to export volumes and the livelihoods of millions. Learning from the lengthy implementation of the timber legality agreement, the chapter concludes that equitable outcomes and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals require fair negotiations underpinned by a balance of power. It strongly advocates for empowering formal bilateral bodies, such as the EU-Indonesia Working Group, to establish clear, phased, and actionable implementation pathways.

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