Improved uncertainties analysis of Indonesia’s Forest Reference Emission Level 2016

Under its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Indonesia has continued to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, the sustainable management of forests, and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) is a key component of the NDC target from the land sector.
Indonesia submitted its 1st FREL in January 2016 (FREL–2016) covered emissions from deforestation, forest degradation, and peat decomposition. As part of the FREL–2016 improvement, the next FREL should consider land-use change dynamics and emissions/removal in biomass and soil. This improvement needs to reduce the uncertainty of emission factors (EFs) and activity data (AD) including non-CO2 GHGs and reinforce sink monitoring.
Analysis in this working paper aims to improve and re-run the uncertainty in Indonesia’s FREL–2016 by using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). This working paper is expected to provide recommendations for Indonesia and other wetland-rich countries to meet their conditional land use emission reduction targets through improving the accuracy in their wetlands GHG accounting.

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