Analysis for improvement of Indonesia FREL–2016

Indonesia submited its frst Forest Reference Emission Level (FREL) to the United Natons Framework Conventon on Climate Change in 2015, revising it in 2016 (FREL–2016). FREL–2016 was used to assess the impact of mitgaton actons post-2012 implemented through REDD+ (Reducing emissions from deforestaton, forest degradaton, enhancement of forest carbon stock, sustainable management of forests, and conservaton of forest carbon). While the UNFCCC considered FREL–2016 a laudable efort, its reviewers recommended technical improvements, such as including peatland fres and emissions of non-CO2 gases.
This study identfes actvites, pools, and gases absent from FREL–2016, and ofers recommendatons for its technical assessment. To that end, it combines Propagaton of Error and Monte Carlo Simulaton to assess the uncertainty of estmated emissions. The results reafrm the importance of considering previously unaccounted actvites, and additonal carbon pools and gases. They also underscore the need for uncertainty analysis to enhance the accuracy and reliability of emissions estmates within the context of REDD+ and FREL–2016.

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