Footprints of meteorology and air pollution on rice yield variation in the North Indian Plain; implications of future climate change scenarios

The global food system faces challenges from climate change and air pollution. Here, we examined their effects on rice yield in the North Indian plain (NIP), one of the principal rice-growing areas of the world. Combining satellite-based biophysical data products and spectral indices with soil moisture and fertilizer usage, we mapped high-resolution rice yield indiscriminately for both irrigated and rainfed systems in the NIP during the summer monsoon from 2004 to 2019. The footprints of meteorology and air pollution on the changing patterns of rice yield were isolated through multivariate linear models. The forced components of these models led to the estimation of relative yield change (RYC), the course of which was later simulated for the future climate change scenarios using CMIP6 data up to 2035. The largest effect on rice yield was estimated due to the variability of maximum temperature (−35 kg ha−1 to 212 kg ha−1) in the meteorological model, followed by aerosol loading (−80 kg ha−1 to 7 kg ha−1) in the air pollution model. The analysis of the RYC and its sensitivity using the CMIP6 climate change scenarios (SSP2 and SSP5) shows that among all agroclimatic regions, the Lower Gangetic Plain in the eastern NIP is resilient to the variability of meteorology and air pollution, while other agroclimatic regions – in the central and western NIP – show a remarkable reduction in their projected yields by 2035. The findings have serious implications for the supply chain and may increase pressure on the grain import due to climate change-driven future states of meteorology and air pollution.

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