Seasonal atmospheric and oceanographic factors influencing poleward mangrove expansion in the southeastern American coast

Mangrove ecosystems are distributed worldwide, along tropical and subtropical coastlines. For a long time, mangrove biogeographers have been challenged by the question: why is mangrove distribution restricted to its current latitudinal limits? The Araranguá estuary in Brazil is located ~75 km beyond the eastern South America mangrove limit. Despite its geomorphology apparently being suitable for mangrove colonization, mangroves have been reported absent from this estuary. In this work, we analyze key environmental variables (such as the longest available observational in-situ records of air temperature) and provide an assessment of other environmental players (such as the adjacent ocean circulation and upwelling system) to better understand which factors could be determinant in the species range limits in eastern South America. Our results and assessment suggest that, depending on the season, multiple factors could combine to prevent a poleward dispersion of mangrove species. These are mainly the northward-directed longshore drift which dominates throughout the year and the high occurrence of chilling events during winter, although seasonal upwelling of cold waters in spring and summer could also influence the propagules’ viability.

Variation in Onset of Leaf Unfolding and Wood Formation in a Central African Tropical Tree Species

A diversity of phenological strategies has been reported for tropical tree species. Defoliation and seasonal dormancy of cambial activity inform us on how trees cope with water stress during the dry season, or maximize the use of resources during the rainy season. Here, we study the matching between leaf phenology (unfolding and shedding) and cambial activity for Prioria balsamifera, a key timber species in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In particular, we (i) evaluated the seasonality of cambial activity and synchrony of phenology among trees in response to climate and (ii) identified the seasonality of leaf phenology and its relation with cambial phenology. The study was conducted in the Luki Man and Biosphere Reserve, located in the Mayombe forest at the southern margin of the Congo Basin. Historic defoliation data were collected every ten days using weekly crown observations whereas recent observations involved time-lapse cameras. Cambial pinning was performed on ten trees during 20 months and radius dendrometers were installed on three trees during 13 months. Tree rings were measured on cores from 13 trees and growth synchrony was evaluated. We found that P. balsamifera defoliates annually with a peak observed at the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season. The new leaves unfolded shortly after shedding of the old leaves. The peak defoliation dates varied across years from September 12 to November 14 and the fraction of number of trees that defoliated at a given time was found to be negatively correlated with annual rainfall and temperature; during the dry season, when precipitation and temperatures are the lowest. Wood formation (radial growth), was found to be highly seasonal, with cambial dormancy occurring during the dry season and growth starting at the beginning of the rainy season. Individual ring-width series did not cross date well. The within species variability of leaf phenology and cambial rhythms provides indication about resistance of the population against climatic changes.

Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends in Southern Ethiopia

This study investigated the trends and variability of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature data over southern Ethiopia using time series analysis for the period 1983–2016. Standard Anomaly Index (SAI), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Precipitations Concentration Index (PCI), and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to examine rainfall variability and develop drought indices over southern Ethiopia. Temporal changes of rainfall trends over the study period were detected using Mann Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed that the region experienced considerable rainfall variability and change that resulted in extended periods of drought and flood events within the study period. Results from SAI and SPI indicated an inter-annual rainfall variability with the proportions of years with below and above normal rainfall being estimated at 56% and 44% respectively. Results from the Mann Kendall trend test indicated an increasing trend of annual rainfall, Kiremt (summer) and Bega (dry) seasons whereas the Belg (spring) season rainfall showed a significant decreasing trend (p < 0.05). The annual rate of change for mean, maximum and minimum temperatures was found to be 0.042 °C, 0.027 °C, and 0.056 °C respectively. The findings from this study can be used by decision-makers in taking appropriate measures and interventions to avert the risks posed by changes in rainfall and temperature variability including extremes in order to enhance community adaptation and mitigation strategies in southern Ethiopia.

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