Climate variability is a major source of risk to smallholder farmers and pastoralists, particularly in dryland regions. A growing body of evidence links climate-related risk to the extent and the persistence of rural poverty in these environments. Stochastic shocks erode smallholder farmers’ long-term livelihood potential through loss of productive assets. The resulting uncertainty impedes progress out of poverty by acting as a disincentive to investment in agriculture – by farmers, rural financial services, value chain institutions and governments. We assess evidence published in the last ten years that a set of production technologies and institutional options for managing risk can stabilize production and incomes, protect assets in the face of shocks, enhance uptake of improved technologies and practices, improve farmer welfare, and contribute to poverty reduction in risk-prone smallholder agricultural systems. Production technologies and practices such as stress-adapted crop germplasm, conservation agriculture, and diversified production systems stabilize agricultural production and incomes and, hence, reduce the adverse impacts of climate-related risk under some circumstances. Institutional interventions such as index-based insurance and social protection through adaptive safety nets play a complementary role in enabling farmers to manage risk, overcome risk-related barriers to adoption of improved technologies and practices, and protect their assets against the impacts of extreme climatic events. While some research documents improvements in household welfare indicators, there is limited evidence that the risk-reduction benefits of the interventions reviewed have enabled significant numbers of very poor farmers to escape poverty. We discuss the roles that climate-risk management interventions can play in efforts to reduce rural poverty, and the need for further research on identifying and targeting environments and farming populations where improved climate risk management could accelerate efforts to reduce rural poverty.
Tag: risk assessment
A novel decision analysis and risk assessment framework for improving agro-ecosystem interventions
Designing and implementing agro-ecosystem intervention decisions is a complex undertaking, outcomes are uncertain and risk of project failure and cost overruns are large.
Risk assessment by sowing date for barley (Hordeum vulgare) in northern Ethiopia
Risks of dry and wet sowing methods of rainfed barley were evaluated in northern Ethiopia. The evaluation was based on yield simulation using a validated AquaCrop model. Risks of failure (false start) were assessed by taking biomass threshold levels (<0.1 t ha-1) from defined early, normal and late sowing by farmer's and depth criterion over long-term (21-41 years) climate observation. The study verified that false start increased over the study area in the order from southwest to southeast and northeast. The risk level due to false start by farmer's criterion ranged from 5 to 37%, 9 to 37%, and 9 to 19% for early, normal and late sowing, respectively, whereas the false start risk by depth criterion ranged from 14 to 29% for early; 14 to 24% for normal; and 5 to 23% for late sowing. The long-term simulated average yield across the stations ranged from 0.8 0.8 to 1.5 0.7 t ha-1 for early, 0.9 0.7 to 1.6 0.5 t ha-1 for normal and 0.8 0.7 to 1.7 0.6 t ha-1 for late sowing when farmer's criterion was applied whereas the corresponding average yield when depth criteria was applied ranged from 0.8 0.6 to 1.5 0.6 t ha-1 for early, 0.6 0.6 to 1.6 0.7 t ha-1 for normal and 0.4 0.4 to 1.7 0.4 t ha-1 for late sowing. The result suggested that risks of false start reduced and barley yield relatively improved when normal/late sowing was applied based on farmer's criterion or when early/normal sowing was applied based on depth criterion. In most of the cases, stations situated southwest of the catchment were characterized by early onset and late cessation (longer length of growing period) whereas stations situated towards the northeast, northwest and southeast are more characterized by normal or late onset and early or normal cessation (shorter growing period). In general, yield reduced from west to east mainly due to the effect of onset and cessation of rain. This study also showed that weed infestation was prevalent when early sowing was applied. Thus to minimize the risk of false start and to reduce cost of weeding, sowing should be scheduled after sufficient moisture is ensured during which especially grass weeds would emerge before sowing so that the emerged weeds could be plowed over.
Jurisdictional risk assessment and implementation of theory of change to sustainable palm oil in Pelalawan District, Riau Province
The jurisdictional approach has been widely used to address multifaceted issues associated with commodity-driven deforestation. Risk assessment at the jurisdictional level is required to implement jurisdictional programs. We developed a risk framework and indicator to assess the risks associated with achieving sustainable palm oil, using Pelalawan District as a case study. Pelalawan scored 0.48 out of 1, with the highest risks in the percentage of deforestation driven by oil palm plantation in mineral forest and pressure due to demand by global trade/export. Risks that are not mitigated will hamper the district’s effort to achieve sustainability. Following the assessment, we brought together multistakeholder in a workshop to develop a common vision using the theory of change framework. This study introduces new ways to approach sustainable palm oil initiatives in the palm oil sector using risk assessment and a theory of change framework.
Risks to REDD+
International negotiations for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were finally concluded in 2015. However, due to the complex design and implementation processes of REDD+ policies and measures, including benefit sharing at national and subnational levels, several challenges exist for sustainably reducing emissions while simultaneously managing the provision of social and environmental side-objectives. We review the realities of REDD+ implementation in 13 REDD+ candidate countries and the risks related to REDD+ policies and benefit sharing based upon a synthesis of the findings presented in ‘country profiles’ that were developed between 2009 and 2013 as part of the Center for International Forestry Research’s (CIFOR) Global Comparative Study on REDD+. We find that REDD+ policies in all countries studied are at high risk of ineffectiveness, inequity and inefficiency. By classifying these risks and understanding not only their impacts on different stakeholder groups, but also the consequences for achieving specific objectives, countries can identify solutions in order to address these shortcomings in their implementation of REDD+.
Indigenous Peoples’ lands are threatened by industrial development; conversion risk assessment reveals need to support Indigenous stewardship
Indigenous Peoples are custodians of many of the world’s least-exploited natural areas. These places of local and global socio-ecological importance face significant threats from industrial development expansion, but the risk of conversion of these lands remains unclear. Here we combine global datasets of Indigenous Peoples’ lands, their current ecological condition, and future industrial development pressure to assess conversion threats. To assess vulnerability and risk of conversion, we create an index based on indicators of the strength and security of Indigenous Peoples’ rights to their territories and resources, their representation and engagement in decisions impacting them, and the capital available to support conservation and sustainable development. We find that nearly 60% of Indigenous Peoples’ lands (22.7 million km2) are threatened in 64 countries. Among the 37 countries with the highest threat, socio-economic and political vulnerabilities increase conversion risk, particularly the limited recognition and protection of territorial rights. We suggest strategies and actions to bolster Indigenous Peoples’ self-determination, rights, and leadership to reduce this risk and foster socio-ecological well-being.
Risk and time preferences for participating in forest landscape restoration: The case of coffee farmers in Uganda
In recent years, Uganda has experienced widespread forest loss and degradation, mainly driven by agricultural expansion and rising demand for forest products. The adoption of agroforestry is regarded as one of the key strategies in forest landscape restoration in agriculture. While the benefits of agroforestry are widely acknowledged, adoption among smallholder farmers is sluggish. This study analyzes how individual risk and time preferences affect smallholder farmers’ choice of attributes of companion trees within coffee agroforestry systems in the Mt. Elgon region in Uganda. Farmers’ risk and time preferences are elicited using lottery-based experiments, whereas farmers’ choices of preferred attributes for companion trees are determined using a discrete choice experiment. The data from the different experimental designs are combined to establish how risk and time preferences affect the decision to integrate companion trees into coffee farms. Farmers’ choices of tree attributes are analyzed based on random utility models, and farmers’ risk and time preferences are measured using cumulative prospect theory and quasi-hyperbolic discounting. The results reveal that most farmers are both risk and loss averse with high discount rates (impatience), and they are willing to pay more for quality tree seedlings. Analyzing the behavioral parameters in combination with discrete choice data on the preferred choice of tree attributes reveals a close association between farmers’ aversion to risk and loss and high discount rates with preferences for trees that grow fast, improve soil fertility, and provide fuelwood. This study offers unique insights for researchers, extension officers, and policymakers, on how farmers’ risk and time preferences and preferred attributes can be used to tailor agroforestry interventions to be attractive for farmers in different contexts in pursuit of broader forest landscape restoration goals. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
The Challenge of Predicting Risks of Outbreaks
Archetypes of Climate-Risk Profiles among Rural Households in Limpopo, South Africa
More frequent and intense climate hazards, a predicted outcome of climate change, are likely to threaten existing livelihoods in rural communities, undermining households’ adaptive capacity. To support households’ efforts to manage and reduce this risk, there is a need to better understand the heterogeneity of risk within and between communities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change revised their climate vulnerability framework to incorporate the concept of risk. This study contributes toward the operationalization of this updated framework by applying a recognized methodology to the analysis of the climate-related risk of rural households. Using a mixed-method approach, including a cluster analysis, it determined and assessed archetypical patterns of household risk. The approach was applied to 170 households in two villages, in different agroecological zones, in the Vhembe District Municipality of South Africa’s Limpopo Province. Six archetypical climate-risk profiles were identified based on differences in the core components of risk, namely, the experience of climate hazards, the degree of exposure and vulnerability, and the associated impacts. The method’s application is illustrated by interpreting the six profiles, with possible adaptation pathways suggested for each. The archetypes show how climate-related risk varies according to households’ livelihood strategies and capital endowments. There are clear site-related distinctions between the risk profiles; however, the age of the household and the gender of the household head also differentiate the profiles. These different profiles suggest the need for adaptation responses that account for these site-related differences, while still recognizing the heterogeneity of risk at the village level.
Financial risks that may impair smallholders’ ability to continue farming: An agricultural risk profiling methodology
The idea behind this document is to provide a quick overview of some of the details that might be important for World Agroforestry (ICRAF) when devising new projects in which agricultural risk management1 is a desired component. The document is intended to serve as an addendum to training sessions for ICRAF on agricultural insurance. Please refer to the documentation of the sessions for further information. As learned during the training sessions, in the insurance/reinsurance industry and, in particular, for types of property insurance2, the usual way of gathering information about a certain agricultural risk or farm holding is through a proposal form (also known as questionnaire or risk assessment form).