This working paper describes the Decision Analysis work done on the Drylands Development Programme (DryDev) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The programme was designed to address water management, food security and rural economic development in the drylands of Kenya, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The initiative was geared towards supporting the transition of smallholder households from subsistence farming and reliance on emergency aid towards more sustainable agribusiness enterprises. Decision Analysis was used as a quantitative ex-ante impact assessment tool to prioritize interventions based on their projected impacts. The assessment simulated the potential of four interventions in six project sites of Eastern Kenya, incorporating risk and uncertainty in decision modelling. The result delivered to the decision makers was a range of plausible outcomes from a cost benefit analysis and a description of the variables with the highest critical uncertainties whose measurement would most facilitate decision-making. This paper describes the modelling process, which was both participatory and probabilistic, for each intervention. It gives details on the quantitative approach used for each of the four interventions separately, highlighting the benefit, cost and risk variables and the interactions between them. It then discusses the results of each decision model and from these makes recommendations to the decision makers. The penultimate section highlights the limitations and constraints faced by the analysis, and this is followed by general conclusions. The DryDev Programme is funded by the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with ICRAF as the lead implementing agency and SNV, CARITAS, ADRA and World Vision as implementing partners.
Tag: Net Present Value
Agro-economy of tree wind break systems in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia
Tree wind break systems are found in many parts of the world. In particular in windy and arid regions they help to increase crop yields and reduce crop water consumption. Due to these reasons, tree wind breaks have a long tradition in Central Asia and were strongly propagated there during Soviet Union times. After the Soviet Union had disintegrated and the countries in Central Asia had become independent, energy supplies from Russia ceased and fuel wood became the primary energy source for large parts of the population, in particular rural population. Consequently, most of those tree wind breaks were cut down for fuel wood during the 1990s. Now, governments wish to restore these systems, but many farmers are skeptical about the economic returns from investment in tree wind breaks. Against this background, this study calculated revenues, costs, and profits for tree wind break systems of poplars combined with wheat, barley, corn, alfalfa, cotton, and rice in Kyrgyzstan, based on interviews and field observations. Tree wind breaks with more than one row of trees (multiple row type) did not result in financial gains for most crop tree wind break systems compared to open field conditions, while single tree wind breaks were cost-neutral or resulted in small economic gains, also under different discount rates and revenues attained from crops and trees. Among the different grid sizes, the 200 m × 200 m grid attained the highest financial surplus compared with open field conditions and other grid sizes. Thereby, effectively it is recommended to establish tree wind breaks along existing field borders or irrigation ditches while keeping an average distance between tree lines of 200 m, in order not to impede farm operations.