Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) is carried out with the objective of regaining ecological functions and enhancing human well-being through intervention in degrading ecosystems. However, uncertainties and risks related to FLR make it difficult to predict long-term outcomes and inform investment plans. We applied a Stochastic Impact Evaluation framework (SIE) to simulate returns on investment in the case of FLR interventions in a degraded dry Afromontane forest while accounting for uncertainties. We ran 10,000 iterations of a Monte Carlo simulation that projected FLR outcomes over a period of 25 years. Our simulations show that investments in assisted natural regeneration, enrichment planting, exclosure establishment and soil-water conservation structures all have a greater than 77% chance of positive returns. Sensitivity analysis of these outcomes indicated that the greatest threat to positive cashflows is the time required to achieve the targeted ecological outcomes. Value of Information (VOI) analysis indicated that the biggest priority for further measurement in this case is the maturity age of exclosures at which maximum biomass accumulation is achieved. The SIE framework was effective in providing forecasts of the distribution of outcomes and highlighting critical uncertainties where further measurements can help support decision-making. This approach can be useful for informing the management and planning of similar FLR interventions.
Tag: land reclamation
Manila declaration on forest and landscape restoration: Making it happen
Globally, Forest and Landscape Restoration (FLR) is gaining widespread recognition from governments and policymakers for its potential to restore key ecosystem services and to improve human wellbeing. We organized an international conference on FLR, titled-Forest and Landscape Restoration: Making it Happen, between 25-27 February 2019 in Manila, the Philippines with 139 participants from 22 countries. The Forest and Landscape Restoration Standards (FLoRES) task force also met prior to the conference, which included a field visit to a pilot community-based forest reforestation site in Biliran Island, the Philippines. Based on the three-day conference, case study presentations, and FLoRES task force meeting, we prepared the Manila Declaration on Forest and Landscape Restoration to highlight the need to support quality of FLR efforts and outcomes in the tropics. Here we provide a synthesis of the main messages of the conference, with key outcomes including the Manila Declaration on Forest and Landscape Restoration, and ways forward to make quality FLR happen on the ground.